A Half-Dozen Underrated Baseball Players, 2015
Now that another baseball season has come and gone, (the regular season anyway), it’s time to take a look back. But instead of forecasting who will win the annual award hardware, let’s instead review those players who had fine seasons that may have gone somewhat under-appreciated. The players I’ve chosen might not make your list. To refer to a player as “underrated” or “under-appreciated” is to make a subjective judgment call. Still, I’m guessing that unless you are a total baseball junkie, at least a couple of these names may have gotten by you this year.
- 3B Nolan Arenado: Colorado Rockies – Arenado, a right-handed batter, was drafted by the Rockies in the 2nd round of the 2009 amateur draft. All Arenado did in this third season in the Majors in 2015 was lead the N.L. in home runs (42), RBI (130) and total bases (354.) A triple slash line of .287 / .323 /.575 indicates that while Arenado could stand to be a bit more selective at the plate, he certainly does crush his pitch when he gets it. Not just a slugger, however, Arenado is also a Gold Glove caliber third baseman who led all N.L. third basemen in putouts (105), assists (385), double-plays turned (42) and range factor. This 24-year old played in his first All-Star Game in 2015, and should have many more in his future.
- SP Gerrit Cole: Pittsburgh Pirates – Cole, a right-handed pitcher, was the very first pick of the 2011 amateur draft. In his third season in the Majors, he nearly won 20 games (19-8 in 32 starts.) In 208 innings, he struck out 202 batters while walking just 44. He posted a tidy 2.60 ERA (2.66 FIP), with an ERA+ of 148 and a WHIP of 1.09. Cole surrendered just eleven home runs all year. Also a fine fielding pitcher, he did not make an error all season. Like Arenado, Cole made his first All-Star team in 2015. In many seasons, Cole would be the odds-on favorite to win the N.L. Cy Young award. But with the dynamic duo of Kershaw and Greinke out in L.A., and the remarkable season enjoyed by Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta (who could also make this list, perhaps), Cole may find himself finishing no higher than 4th or 5th in the Cy Young voting. Still just 25-years old, however, Cole should have many chances in the future to win that particular award.
- CF Kevin Kermaier: Tampa Bay Rays – Kermaier was not drafted until the 31st round in 2010. A left-handed batting center-fielder, let me make it clear at the outset that Kermaier did not make this list due to his bat. As a hitter, he’s about league-average, sporting an OPS+ of 98, though he did finish second in the A.L. in triples with 12. But a .263 batting average and an on-base average of just under .300, with little power, isn’t going to win him any MVP awards in the near future. Kermaier is on this list, instead, for his remarkable fielding ability. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an outfielder finish a season with a 5.0 dWAR before, but Kermaier reached that lofty summit in 2015. His overall WAR of 7.4 makes Kermaier a very valuable player, even despite the average bat. Kermaier led A.L. center-fielders in Total Zone Runs (24) while recording 410 putouts and 15 assists. If his bat improves during the coming seasons, the 25-year old Kermaier could become an All-Star caliber player.
- RP Zach Britton: Baltimore Orioles – Drafted by the Orioles in the third round of the 2008 amateur draft, this 27-year old lefty began his career as a starter, but converted to relief-pitching before the 2014 season. Since then, he has been one of the best closers in the A.L. This past season, Britton finished more games (58) than any other pitcher in the A.L., while recording 36 saves. He recorded an ERA of 1.92, an ERA+ of 217 and a FIP of 2.01. His WHIP was a fantastic 0.990, and he struck out 79 batters in 65 innings, while walking just 14. He gave up just three homers all year. Britton was a first-time All Star in 2015, and while not a household name outside of Baltimore, Britton seems poised to enjoy many very productive seasons to come.
- 3B Josh Donaldson: Toronto Blue Jays – Though drafted by the Cubs in the first round of the 2007 draft, Donaldson made his MLB debut with the Oakland A’s in 2010, but didn’t play as many as 75 games in the Majors until he was already 26-years old in 2012. Since then, this right-handed batting third baseman has been a one-man wrecking crew. Similar (though older) than Colorado’s Nolan Arenado, Donaldson has a better batting eye, and is nearly as good a defensive third baseman as Arenado. Also, like his third base counterpart in the Senior Circuit, Donaldson led his league in total bases in 2015 with 352, just two fewer than Arenado. Of the two, however, Donaldson probably has the better shot at league MVP this year. Donaldson led the A.L. in both runs scored (122) and RBI (123) while slamming 41 homers and 41 doubles. Though Donaldson will turn 30-years old this December, his obvious talent should continue to shine on in Rogers Centre, Toronto for the foreseeable future.
- CF / 2B Mookie Betts: Boston Red Sox – Drafted in the fifth round in 2011, this second baseman / center-fielder has brought life and energy to the Red Sox (despite their losing record.) Mookie turns 23-years old this Wednesday, October 7th, so Happy Birthday in advance, Mookie. Primarily an outfielder these days, Mookie batted .291 in 2015, with a perhaps surprising .479 slugging percentage. He has plenty of pop in his bat, as evidenced by his 68 extra base hits this season, including 18 home runs. Mookie scored 92 runs in 145 games and stole 21 bases while accumulating a 6.0 WAR in his first full year. This athletic and deceptively powerful young man may already be the most valuable player on the Red Sox, and figures to man center-field for them for years to come.
Obviously, there are many more players who I could add to this list. But let me put the question to you, oh wise readers. Which players would you include on this list, based on their 2015 stats?
Baseball 2012: Oddities and Conclusions, and Odd Conclusions
It’s never too early to draw specious conclusions from incomplete data. Politicians do it all the time. Therefore, not holding myself to a higher standard than those fine fellows, here’s what we’ve learned from this year’s baseball statistics thus far in 2012:
1) Albert Pujols is actually 44-years old, and should be put out to pasture. Seriously, I think it would be a bit premature to predict that Sir Albert will win this year’s A.L. MVP trophy. Through nine games he has 40 plate appearances, no home runs, and 12 total bases. It may take him the better part of a full year to adjust to the A.L., and even when he does, he still won’t automatically be the best player in the league.
2) Break up the Mets! They are off to a 6-3 start, including a pair of wins against the Phillies this past weekend. Now just 0.5 games back of the Nats for first place in the N.L. East, and with baseball expanding to two Wild Card teams this year, it’s time to start printing up playoff tickets, isn’t it?
Well, no, it’s not. The Mets Run Differential stands at exactly 0, meaning that this is essentially a .500 team, which is the best most of us Mets fans could hope for at the beginning of the year.
3) The Pirates have the best pitching staff since the Braves when Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Neagle were hanging around. The Pirates four primary starting pitchers: Correia, Bedard, Karstens, and McDonald all have ERA’s under 4.00, and the Pirates have given up fewer runs (22) than any other team in the N.L.
Conclusion: Although the Pirates offense is awful, their pitching is good enough to finish somewhere in the middle of the pack in the N.L. this year, ensuring many low-scoring (especially at home) but competitive ball games.
4) You can have your Verlander, Kershaw, Lee, Hamels, King Felix, etc., but for my money, the one pitcher who continues to be completely unreal (and a future Hall of Famer) is the Phillies Roy Halladay. At 2-0, and having given up just one earned run in 15 innings this year, Halladay has a real chance to reach 200 career wins before he loses his 100th ball game. His career record currently stands at 190-92, and he just seems to keep getting better with age.
Did you know that Halladay has increased his strikeout totals for each of the past seven years? That he has walked over 40 batters in a season just once in the past nine years? That he has never lost more than 11 games in any of his 13 full seasons? He’s as good as they come, folks, so enjoy him while you can.
5) Matt Kemp is staking his claim as the best player in the National League. He should have won the N.L. MVP award last season, leading the league in home runs, RBI, runs scored, OPS+, total bases, and WAR. He also stole 40 bases in 51 attempts, and plays above average defense in center field. This year, with the Dodgers off to a 9-1 start, thanks in large part to Kemp’s torrid start, there’s every reason to believe he’ll win his first MVP award.
6) The A.L. East is the most mediocre division in baseball. No team currently has more than five wins, nor fewer than four. Only 1.5 games separates last place Boston from first place Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays. Realistically, it is possible that no one in this division will win more than 95 games, and it is conceivable that four of these five teams might still be separated by as little as 1.5 games going into the final week of the season.
A look at the current run differentials in this division, where Toronto’s +12 is currently the best, suggests that there are no great teams in this division, just several good ones.
7) David Wright will be the first player in baseball history to hit .500 this year, while posting an OPS+ well in excess of a KaZillion. On his way to cementing his status as the best position player in Mets history (if you overlook a little thing called defense), Wright appears to enjoy the newly reconfigured Citi Field dimensions. Most encouragingly, Wright has struck out just twice in his first 26 plate appearances this year. Yup, he’s Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Paul McCartney and Brad Pitt, all rolled up in one perfect guy. Let’s Go Mets!
8) In the apparent pre-season bet between Bobby Valentine and Ozzie Guillen to see which of them could throw their managerial job away first, Bobby V. appears to have the inside edge so far. Yes, Guillen committed the worst possible sin in Miami by lauding Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, but, hey, he gets language confused, you know? What he MEANT was the Castro was a brain-eating zombie who devours small children on whats left of the playgrounds in Havana. It was the MEDIA who got him all confused, see? ANYONE could have made that mistake, right?
Meanwhile, Bobby V. today managed to insult Kevin Youkilis in what was an apparent effort to “fire him up.” Oh. And then he apologized to Youk for saying what he said to fire him up. Look, it is readily apparent that Boston, as a franchise, is still suffering from what they used to call shell-shock from last September. Putting Bobby V. at the helm of a franchise suffering collectively from P.T.S.D. is like putting serial killer Ted Bundy in a rape-hotline call center (oh wait, he really did have that job.)
Prediction: Both managers are fired before the season ends, Bobby V. getting thrown overboard first.
9) Tommy Hanson will never pitch a complete game shutout in his career. I’m not saying he’s not a good enough pitcher to do so. Hanson’s a very good pitcher, but he is one of the least efficient pitchers in baseball, regularly going to 2-2 counts on virtually every batter he faces. That’s not how you pitch deep into ball games. In fact, Hanson has completed just one of his 79 career starts. Maybe he’ll eventually learn to pitch to contact more frequently, but until he does so, he’ll always be a fine six-inning pitcher.
10) Brett Lawrie will be an All-Star for the next twenty years. Yes, he only has 211 career plate appearances, but here’s his 162 game average so far: 31 home runs, 100 RBI, 93 runs scored, 25 steals, a .911 OPS, and an OPS+ of 142 (the same as Mike Piazza.) Waive the ten-years of MLB service requirement rule and put the kid in Cooperstown right now so he can enjoy the honor while he’s still young.
I’m sure you’ve drawn lots of early season conclusions of your own. So please feel free to share them with me, and I’ll publish the best ones in my next post.