The On Deck Circle

Baseball History, Commentary and Analysis

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2011: The Hitters

Colby Rasmus

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Today and this Wednesday, I will be featuring a brief two-part series on Fantasy Baseball.

Today in Part 1, I will focus on the hitters.  On Wednesday, I will post an article on the pitchers.

The following players qualify as sleepers because I believe their actual value in 2011 will surpass their perceived value on Fantasy / Roto Draft Day.

 

 

Catcher – Mike Napoli – Recently traded from the Angels to the Blue Jays, and then on to the Rangers, Napoli will be playing in one of baseball’s best hitter’s parks.  Moreover, because he is likely to play as much 1B / DH as C, Napoli will receive fewer days off than most regular catchers.  Napoli is at an age when many catchers truly find their power-stroke.  And on Draft Day, he will be available in the later rounds.

 

First Base – Mitch Moreland – Two things I always keep in mind on Draft Day: 1) Draft the Ballpark and 2) Look for the players who will finally receive an opportunity.  Moreland, like Napoli, will be playing half his games in a great hitting environment, with good hitters around him.  On top of that, the first base job is his to lose this year, as Chris Davis seems to have played himself out of the competition.

 

Second Base – Gordon BeckhamBeckham suffered through a mostly miserable season last year for various reasons.  One underappreciated reason is likely his difficult transition to a new defensive position, second base.  People seem to underrate how difficult it can be for a young player to master a new position, especially in the middle infield.  Beckham is simply too talented to play anywhere near as poorly as he did last year.  Finally, the White Sox play in a friendly hitting environment, not to mention the other obvious advantage of facing Cleveland and Kansas City pitching staffsseveral times per year.

 

Third Base – Pedro Alvarez – This young Pirates slugger strikes out a lot, but he wields a very lethal bat.  There will be some growing pains again this year as he enters his first full season, but because he is a Pirate, he should slip down far enough in your draft to produce at least moderate value for you this year.  And, if you are in a keeper league, his future value may be enormous.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shortstop – Yunel EscobarEscobar wore out his welcome in Atlanta despite his obvious defensive talent and hitting abilities.  Although at 28-years old he is not young enough to qualify as a prospect anymore, Toronto’s hitting environment, and a perhaps looser atmosphere in which to play, could very well provide the opportunity for Yunel to suddenly blossom.  Some in your league will be put off by his allegedly bad attitude.  Just remember that good attitudes don’t win Fantasy Championships, good statistics do.

 

Outfield – Justin Upton Upton experienced the proverbial sophomore slump last year.  But at age 23, this will be your last chance to get him at a discount.  Remember that he was the number #1 overall pick of the 2005 amateur draft.  Consider, too, that he has already slugged 60 career home runs to go along with his 84 doubles and 41 steals.  Also, he plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark.  Draft him as a #2 outfielder, and watch him produce like a #1 outfielder.

Outfield – Colby Rasmus – Manager Tony LaRussa just never seemed to warm up to Rasmus last year.  Whenever Rasmus got hot, LaRussa would find an excuse to play someone else in the outfield for a day or two, never allowing Rasmus to get into a rhythm and sustain it.  Rasmus scored 85 runs last year and swatted 23 home runs in just 464 at bats.  At age 24, he is just beginning to discover his real potential.  Only LaRussa stands in the way of Rasmus reaching stardom in the next year or two.

Outfield – Travis Snider – Finally displayed a modicum of his serious power potential last season, hitting twenty doubles and fourteen homers in what amounted to about half a seasons worth of playing time.  Snider turns 23-years old on February 2nd, so his development as a future star is right about where it should be.  A 25-home run, 35 double, 12 stolen base-seasons is within reach this year, with bigger numbers down the road as his plate discipline improves.

Designated Hitters – Since most leagues allow any position player to fill the role of DH, there just isn’t any reason to search for sleepers at this “position.”  But if you find yourself desperately trying to fill this hole, focus on available first basemen and outfielders.  Those are the positions where you will find the most available sleepers.

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