Baseball’s Surprising Stats: Pedro Martinez
This is Part 7 of the series, “Baseball’s Surprising Stats.” If you’ve missed any or all of the first six, you’ll find them under “Recent Posts” over to the right.
Recently, I read that Pedro Martinez lost only 100 games in his entire career in over 400 starts.
English: Pedro Martínez (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Losing just 100 games out of 409 career starts (against 219 wins) is a pretty remarkable statistic.
It led me to ask the following question: What was the greatest number of games Pedro lost in any one season?
Indirectly, this also led me to wonder, if wins are an overrated statistic that don’t often reveal the true value of a pitcher, then how about losses?
In other words, are the number of losses a pitcher suffers in a particular season fairly representative of his overall performance?
Lists are often my favorite visual aid, so of course you know what’s coming. Here’s a list of 26 pitchers, (do we always have to work with multiples of five?) and the highest number of losses they suffered in a season, from fewest to most.
Every pitcher on this list made at least 300 career starts, the vast majority making over 400. The number in parentheses indicates the number of seasons the pitcher lost that many games. A number in bold print indicates they led the league in losses that season.
1) Pedro Martinez – 10 (2)
2) Ron Guidry – 12 (and it wasn’t until he turned 35 that he lost that many.)
3) Lefty Grove – 13 (2)
4) Sandy Koufax – 13 (2)
5) John Smoltz – 13
6) Roger Clemens – 14
7) David Cone – 14 (2)
8) Randy Johnson – 14 (2)
9) Curt Schilling – 14
10) Tom Seaver – 14 (2)
11) Bob Feller – 15 (2)
12) Dwight Gooden – 15
13) Greg Maddux – 15
14) Mike Mussina – 15
15) “Pete” Alexander – 17
16) Bert Blyleven – 17 (4) (Led league in losses in one of those four 17-loss seasons.)
17) Tom Glavine – 17
18) Catfish Hunter – 17
19) Christy Mathewson – 17
20) Ferguson Jenkins – 18
21) Jack Morris – 18
22) Nolan Ryan – 18
23) Don Sutton – 18
24) Steve Carlton – 20
25) Luis Tiant – 20
26) Walter Johnson – 25
Boy, that Walter Johnson was a lousy pitcher, wasn’t he?
Actually, the year Johnson lost 25 games he was just a 21-year old kid still learning his craft. Although his ERA that year was a sparkling 2.22, his ERA+ was just a mediocre 111, meaning that lots of pitchers had very low ERA’s that year. Easy to see why this was the Dead Ball era, right?
So, do the number of losses a pitcher suffers in their “worst” season tell us much in the way of useful information? Is it possible for a pitcher to have an excellent year (as measured by other reliable stats) yet come away with a relatively high number of losses?
Well, we just saw that Walter Johnson was not yet a great pitcher when he lost those 25 games. Similarly, Tom Glavine was just a 22-year old with an ERA+ of just 80 when he lost his career high 17 games. In other words, it would not be inaccurate to say that he truly did “earn” those losses.
Although Nolan Ryan was already 29-years old when he lost 18 games in 1976, his ERA+ that year was only 99, and he was still walking far too many batters. In other words, those 18 losses can’t simply be written off as a lack of run support, or an unlucky “good” pitcher on a bad team. Ryan pretty much deserved to lose 18 of his 39 starts that year.
Don Sutton, like Bert Blyleven, is in the Hall of Fame due to a long career of notable, yet unspectacular, consistency. They are baseball’s equivalent of the 35-year career insurance salesmen who never miss a day of work, but of whom the best that can be said is that they never knowingly, intentionally, sold a questionable policy. They each stuck around long enough to earn their gold watch, enjoy their retirement party, and retire to Miami Beach to play golf, bare white legs set against the over-manicured greens draining into dying swampland.
So what of their 17 and 18 loss seasons? In 23 seasons, Don Sutton never led his league in ERA+, and in ERA just once. In 1969, his fourth season in the Majors, he posted an ERA+ of 96 in 296 innings. Durable? Sure. But it is clear that those 18 losses were generally representative of his pitching performance that particular year.
Bert Blyleven’s four 17-loss seasons, three of which occurred consecutively from 1972-74, were more of a mixed bag. In two of those seasons, (1973-74) Blyleven posted ERA+’s of 156 (which led the league) and 142, respectively. In 1972, his ERA+ was a decent 119, and in his final 17-loss campaign, 1988, his 17 losses led the league in a year in which his ERA+ was only 75.
When Luis Tiant and Steve Carlton each led their respective leagues with 20 losses (Tiant in ’69; Carlton in ’73), neither pitcher was better than league-average that year. Tiant’s ERA+ was just 101, and Carlton’s was only 97.
Long-time Boston Red Sox pitcher Pedro Martínez returns to Fenway Park in 2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Generally speaking then, what is clear from this admittedly abbreviated list of pitchers is that great pitchers don’t tend to lose very many games, unless they are having an off-year, or unless they are still refining their craft.
Now, that may sound like the least surprising bit of information you’ve ever received. But what it means is that, although a pitcher can have a great year and not win very many games (see the list of recent Cy Young winners), it is not at all common for a pitcher to have a great year and still end up with a lot of losses.
Notice that only four of the 26 pitchers on this list ever led their league in losses, despite the large number of combined seasons represented here.
Therefore, although it is true that you should generally ignore a pitcher’s win totals when evaluating his actual value in any one season, the converse is not so true.
A pitcher’s loss totals are generally representative of what you would expect, given other statistical measures of performance.
By that measure, then, one can argue that Pedro Martinez was one of the top ten, if not among the top five, starting pitchers of all-time.
Underrated / Overrated: Baseball and Other Stuff – Part IV
Image via Wikipedia
This is the fourth installment of an ad-hoc series called “Baseball, and Other Stuff.” If you’ve been hanging around here for a while, you know how this works. If you are just joining us, settle in. You’ll get the idea.
The last stand of the survivors of Her Majesty’s 44th Foot at Gandamak
Overrated: Ryan Howard - Sure, his home run and RBI totals over the past five years have been remarkable. But, consider, his walk totals have declined steadily over the past five years (108, 107, 81, 75, 59.) In only two of his seasons has his WAR exceeded 4.0. By contrast, Albert Pujols‘ LOWEST single season WAR was 5.8. And Howard has struck out in 27% of his plate appearances, a staggering total. Finally, only once in the past three years has his on-base percentage touched .360. At age 30, he has probably seen his best days.
Underrated: Miguel Cabrera - Has been playing in the shadow of Albert Pujols his whole career. Otherwise, Cabrera might be considered the greatest player in the game today. Still only 27-years old, he has already produced seven excellent seasons. He has driven in over a hundred runs in all but his first half-season, and has only once failed to score over a hundred runs in a year. His career line is: .313, .388, .552 with an OPS of .939. His career OPS+ is 145, good for 45th place all-time, higher than Harmon Killebrew and Eddie Mathews.
Overrated: Custer’s Last Stand - June, 1876. Lt. Col. Custer’s entire command was wiped out (268 killed) at the Little Bighorn River, by a combined force of Sioux and Cheyenne warriors. Within a year, most of the Indians had been forced back onto reservations, were killed, or had fled with Sitting Bull to Canada.
Underrated: Massacre of Elphinstone’s Army - January, 1842. Afghanistan (road from Kabul to Jalalabad.) After an uprising in the city of Kabul, fomented by Akbar Khan, forced the British / Indian troops and camp followers (16,500 strong) out of Kabul, they attempted to reach safety 90 miles away at the British garrison at Jalalabad. But soon after they set out, the slaughter began. Near the end, fewer than 40 British regulars of the 44th regiment of foot were all that was left. Surrounded by Pashtun tribesmen, their surrender was requested, to which a British sergeant reportedly declared, “Not bloody likely.”
Of the original 16,500 men, women and children that evacuated Kabul, only one British medical officer and a few Indian sepoys survived to tell the tale.
Overrated: Jim “Catfish” Hunter - A colorful character and a tough competitor, but does he really belong in the Hall of Fame? He did win 20 games or more for five straight seasons, but, excepting win totals, he had just three truly outstanding seasons in his entire career: 1972, ’74, ’75. He never struck out 200 batters in a season. He was extremely durable (200+ innings pitched) ten seasons in a row, and he kept his walks to a minimum. But his career ERA+ was just 105, meaning that taking his career as a whole, he was just 5% better than your average replacement level pitcher.
Underrated: Pedro Martinez - Will eventually make the Hall of Fame once he becomes eligible, but some writers, perhaps most, will not view Pedro as a first round HOF candidate (as if that matters) because he won just 219 games in his career. I could be wrong, but I’m guessing that most baseball fans / writers, bloggers, etc., view Pedro as a top 25 all-time pitcher who, unfortunately, didn’t last long enough to make an even greater impression on the minds of the baseball masses.
But let’s take another look at Pedro Martinez’ career. He was an eight time all-star who won five ERA titles, six WHIP titles, three Cy Young awards (while finishing 2nd twice and third once), whose career WAR of 75.9 is 23rd all-time.
Pedro also posted nine 200 strikeout seasons, including two 300-hundred K seasons.
But those are his LEAST impressive statistics. Pedro also posted a career WHIP of 1.054 (fifth best ever) and struck out 10.04 batters per nine innings (3rd best ever.) His strikeouts per walks ratio was 4.15 (3rd best ever.)
Pedro Martinez made 409 career starts, and was defeated just 100 times. He never lost more than ten games in a season, and he was defeated 1o times in a season just twice in 18 years. His .687 career win-loss percentage is 6th best all-time. Pedro struck out 3,154 batters in just 2,827 innings pitched.
Most impressively, however, Pedro Martinez enjoyed his success in a hitter’s era in mostly friendly hitter’s parks (especially Fenway Park.) Very few pitchers in baseball history have managed to top an ERA+ (which takes into consideration a pitchers era and home ballpark) of 200. For the sake of context, Lefty Grove, Bob Gibson and Pete Alexander each reached that plateau just once in their respective careers. Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson and Tom Seaver never posted an ERA+ of 200 in any single season.
Christy Mathewson reached that lofty number twice. Roger Clemens touched that number three times, but two of those years are tainted by alleged PED usage. Walter Johnson, widely regarded as the best pitcher who ever lived, topped an ERA+ of 200 an astonishing four times.
Pedro Martinez reached that pinnacle five times.
Pedro’s career ERA+ of 154 is pretty damn good. How good? Well, since you ask, it’s THE BEST EVER for a starting pitcher.
In other words, folks, from 1997-2003, not only wasn’t there a better pitcher in baseball, but there may never have been a better pitcher in the history of baseball.
Overrated: The Everley Brothers - Here are some lyrics to their hit single “Cathy’s Clown“, released in 1962:
“When you see me shed a tear, and you know that it’s sincere, Doncha think its kinda sad, that you’re treatin’ me so bad? Or don’t you care…?
Egad man, grow a spine!
Underrated: The Blues Brothers:
Overrated: Dave Winfield - Nice overall life-time numbers, 3,000+ hits, 1,800+ RBI’s, 465 home runs… no one’s saying that he sucked. And he gets extra points for being tailed by a private investigator at the behest of Herr Steinbrenner in the ’80′s. But his career line of .283, .353, .475 is not spectacular. Nor is his .827 career OPS, or his OPS+ of 130. Each of these numbers are rather on the low side for a HOF outfielder.
Underrated: Jimmy Wynn - Jimmy (Toy Cannon) Wynn broke into the big leagues in 1963 at the age of 21, and retired fifteen-years later at the age of 35. For most of his career, he played in pitchers’ parks in a heavily dominant pitcher’s era. Despite these handicaps, Wynn was an offensive force in the N.L. In 1965, at age 23, Wynn stole 43 bases while being caught just four times. He also drew 84 walks, scored 90 runs, hit 30 doubles and 22 homers, and logged an OPS+ of 144.
In 1967, despite leading the league in strikeouts, Wynn clubbed 37 homers, drove in 107, scored 102 and stole 16 bases. In ’68, he led the league in offensive WAR at 7.7.
In 1969, Wynn led the league with a huge total of 148 walks, resulting in a .436 on-base percentage. He also slammed 33 homers and scored 113 runs. His .943 OPS was good for sixth in the league. His OPS+ of 166 was a career high, and was fourth best in the senior circuit.
In 1974, Wynn was traded to the Dodgers, made the All-Star team and finished fifth in the N.L. MVP voting at age 32. He drew 108 walks, drove in 108 runs, and scored 104 runs. He slugged 32 homers, and finished with an OPS+ of 151.
In his career, Wynn drew over a hundred walks six times, scored 90 or more runs six times, hit at least 25 homers five times, and posted a career OPS+ of 128, the same as Hall of Famers Mickey Cochrane, Goose Goslin…and Jim Rice.
And, perhaps most ironically, considering Jimmy Wynn is not in the HOF, and Dave Winfield is…
Jimmy Wynn’s career WAR: 59.8.
Dave Winfield’s career WAR: 59.7.
That’s all for today, boys and girls. As for me, I’m done here until after Christmas, so check back in sometime between Christmas and (overrated) New Year’s. Until then, enjoy the holidays.
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