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Having been foolish enough to have committed my player and team predictions for the recently departed (regular) baseball season to a couple of blog-posts several months ago, I find I have little choice but to go back and analyze my, uhm, analysis.
Let’s start with my team predictions.
As a Mets fan, I was not optimistic going into this season. I wrote an entire blog-post about why I thought Jason Bay was a bad signing. Turns out I was wrong about Bay. He wasn’t just bad. He was horrible.
Meanwhile, I predicted the Mets would win somewhere between 78-84 games, probably coming in right around .500. Allowing Oliver Perez to pitch the Mets to disaster on the last day of the Mets season, the Mets lost to Washington 2-1, thereby securing a 79-win campaign.
Oddly, I had predicted the Mets to finish in a third-place tie with the Marlins. The Marlins actually won just one more game than the Mets, so I feel vindicated.
Staying in the N.L. East, I picked the Phils to win and the Braves to earn the Wild Card. Good for me! The Nats, of course, were predicted to come in last.
In the N.L. Central, like virtually everyone else, I thought the Cardinals would win without a serious fight. I stated that, “The Reds are an enigma.” I still think they are an enigma. But here’s what I had to say about Joey Votto:
Joey Votto - Don’t bother reminding me about his anxiety problems. This year, the only people who will experience anxiety problems will be the pitchers who have to face him. 26-year old pure hitter in a nice hitter’s park.
For some reason, I picked the Brewers to finish in second place. They actually finished third. But that’s not saying much in this sorry division.
I had the Cubs, Houston and the Pirates finishing in 4th, 5th and 6th. The Astros actually finished just a game ahead of the Cubs, so…not bad.
In the N.L. West, my picks were terrible. I predicted the Padres would finish in last place, the Giants in fourth place, and Arizona in third place. And I thought the Dodgers would finish second to the Rockies.
Here’s what I said about the Rockies:
I really like the Rockies. Their pitching staff might be the most underrated in baseball, and in Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, they have two of the most exciting young players in the league. Plus their terrific second-half last year should carry over into this season.
Well, I stand by my characterization of Tulo and Gonzalez being two of the most exciting players in the league. If Tulowitzki didn’t miss a significant part of the season due to injury, I still think this was the team to beat.
But I have no excuse for the rest of my picks in that strange division.
Over in the American League, my player evaluations were better than my team evaluations (with a couple of notable exceptions.)
Let’s take the players first.
From the A.L. East (which I predicted Boston to win), I said this about second baseman Dustin Pedroia: This 26-year old has already won an MVP award, and offers a nice power / speed combination. Scores bushels of runs, and plays in a great hitter’s park. What’s not to like? There is no downside here.
I also predicted that Boston’s first baseman Kevin Youkilis and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury would have nice seasons, and that Mike Cameron would prove to be a valuable pickup.
Those four key players combined to miss an astounding total of 405 games. Yes, the Yankees had their share of injuries. But no team in baseball saw so much potential run production vanish so quickly and for so long.
Considering that the Red Sox still managed to win 89 games and finish just six games behind the second place Yankees, I still think the Bo-Sox could have, at the very least, won the Wild Card if their injury caseload had been more manageable.
I picked the Yanks to finish in second place, and I declared them to be a rapidly aging team. I may have been a year premature. But age has certainly taken its toll on both Jeter and Posada. Jeter had one of his worst seasons ever, and 38-year old Posada managed just 383 at bats. Here’s what I predicted for Jeter:
First ballot Hall of Famer will see at least a 20% decline in his overall offensive output from last season, but still has enough to offer at age 35. Will be drafted too early in most leagues due to rep and weak position.
As for Tampa Bay, I thought they would finish a strong third place. I generally liked Carl Crawford, but I really didn’t like first baseman Carlos Pena. Here’s what I said about Pena:
[He is] The 31-year old Latin Dave Kingman. Steer clear.
Pena’s final line: 28-84-.196 Very Kingmanesque.
Pointlessly, I picked Baltimore to finish ahead of Toronto. Baltimore ended up being even worse than I imagined. I thought losing Roy Halladay would signal the death-knell to this Toronto team, but they overcame his loss pretty well, finishing with an impressive record of 85-77.
In the Central Division, I didn’t think the Twins could win with just two excellent players: Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Here’s what I said about the Twins back in March:
I keep reading about the Twins killer offense, but Cuddyer and Kubel should, in fact, be a platoon tandem, since one primarily kills lefties and the other can’t hit them at all. Morneau either gets injured, or slumps badly in the second half. It becomes the Joe Mauer show, but one man can’t do it all. And Joe Nathan being done for the year won’t help.
Nowhere did I see DH Jim Thome rescuing the team about mid-season, when, as I predicted, Justin Morneau got injured. And the acquisition of Matt Capps to close games was also an unforseeable stroke of genius.
I predicted the White Sox would win this division. They fell short by six wins. The Tigers, a team that I considered a dark-horse, were one of only two teams in the Majors to finish with a perfect .500 record, 81-81 (the other was Oakland.)
Picking the Royals and Indians to finish at the bottom was, of course, a no-brainer.
Over in the A.L. West, I bought into the hype that is (or was) the Seattle media machine. In retrospect, although I predicted the Angels were ready for a fall, and that the A’s would be an also-ran, I definitely underestimated the Rangers. Thus, I predicted a team that would finish with one of the worst records in baseball (Seattle: 61-101) would have a nice season due to the off-season acquisitions of Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins (remember Chone Figgins?)
My preseason thoughts on the A.L. West:
Many people still pick Angels to win West. This is a lazy pick. These are not the Angels of the past few seasons. Ervin Santana is your ace? He may win a dozen games. Too many defections to recover from. Texas’ pitching will also regress some from last year, and they’ll have their usual assortment of injuries. Heck, Ian Kinsler is already hurt again.
It was Texas’ pitching that I was most wrong about, although interestingly, their “ace” of 2009, Scott Feldman, did have a poor season in ’10. He finished with a record of 7-11 with a 5.48 ERA a year after winning 17 games and posting an ERA south of 4.00.
In my Pre-Season Pitching Preview, here’s what I said about Scott Feldman:
Although he is only 27-years old, he has already had his career season. His 17 wins last year, despite just 113 K’s in 190 innings, were a fluke. Yes, he did have a nice WHIP, but look for that .250 batting average against to go up around 20-30 percentage points this year. And, as we all know, wins are primarily a reflection of the quality of the team for whom you pitch.
But I did not foresee C.J. Wilson, Tommy Hunter and Colby Lewis finishing with a combined record of 40-25, and all three with ERA’s below 4.00.
As for other players that I liked going into 2010, I was optimistic about Twins starter Francisco Liriano, Padres starter Matt Latos, Brave second baseman Martin Prado, and outfielders Andrew McCutchen (Pirates) and outfielder Justin Upton (Arizona.) Four of the five had very nice seasons. Upton was disappointing, but still managed 17 homers and 18 steals in his age-23 season.
Here was my take on Liriano:
Last years numbers, 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA and a WHIP of 1.55 will scare away most fantasy managers. But there are four reasons for optimism going into this season: 1. He is still just 26-years old, and will be another year removed from his elbow operation. 2. His strikeout rate last year remained pretty high despite his problems 3. The new ballpark in Minnesota should play to his strengths 4. He dominated in the Winter League. Could pay big dividends this season.
In fact, Liriano improved to a solid 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA in 192 innings, striking out 201 batters.
Latos also finished with a 14-10 record for the punchless Padres with an excellent ERA of 2.92 in 185 innings, striking out 189 batters.
And on an awful Pirates team (57-105), McCutchen scored 94 runs, stole 33 bases, hit .284, slugged 16 home runs and 35 doubles, and drew 70 walks.
Finally, here is what I said about Tiger’s first baseman and potential A.L. MVP Miguel Cabrera:
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the two players whose career profiles Cabrera’s is most similar to are Ken Griffey, Jr. and Hank Aaron. Has a .925 career OPS in six full seasons. Turns 27 in April. The A.L. player most likely to win a Triple Crown.
Cabrera had a fantastic season: 38 homers, 128 RBI, 111 runs scored, a 1.042 OPS, and a .328 batting average. As for the Triple Crown categories, he led the A.L. in RBI, finished second in batting average, and Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista’s It-Came-Out-Of-The-Sky home run total of 54 pushed Cabrera’s home run total down to third place, just one behind runner-up Paul Konerko.
In other words, if you remove Bautista’s outlier season from the mix, Cabrera comes damn close to winning the A.L. Triple Crown.
Finally, here were my picks for the major awards:
A.L. Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
N.L. Cy Young: Roy Halladay
N.L. MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
A.L. MVP: Joe Mauer
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz
I think I got the pitching right.
Tulo got hurt, but had a huge September, at one point hitting 14 home runs in 15 games. Mauer’s power disappeared, but he still hit .327 on a first-place Twins team. Heyward might win the ROY award, though personally I’d give it to Buster Posey of the Giants. Matusz was simply a case of expecting too much too soon from a pitcher who still displayed promise on a very bad Orioles team.
BTW, I predicted that the Phillies would lose to Boston in the World Series. I still think the Phils will go to the W.S., but now I think they will beat whomever they face. Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt is just too deep a rotation to have to face.
So there, I’ve done it again. Now I have yet another inadvisable prediction to explain away in about a month. So be it.
Later this week, I will resume my series, “Best Forgotten Baseball Seasons” with a look at the Chicago White Sox.
On a final note, an essay of mine, “Opening Day 1977: A Swan Song for the Mets,” has just been published in a collection of stories called “Tales From Opening Day,” published online at Baseballisms.com. Check it out. It’s free!
Damn, that was a long post. Until next time,
Bill
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Soundtrack for Baseball: July, 2012
This is my third offering in a sporadic series in which I mix baseball analysis with some of my favorite music artists. Let’s call this one “The Blues Edition.” (Please ignore any commercials that may appear. For “Full Screen,” click the icon on the lower, right-hand corner of each video.)
The relationship between the analysis and the songs is tenuous at best, but it amuses me nevertheless (as do bright, shiny objects and fire trucks.)
Here were my offerings for April and May (June somehow slipped by me unnoticed.)
The point of these posts is to create a video-blog of the highlights (and low lights) of the baseball season. I’ll leave it to other bloggers to address this season’s stats and stories in a more traditional fashion.
So let’s begin.
Has any PHEENOM ever made such a huge impact in his first full season as Mike Trout has done this season? The list of players who were great right out of the gate, and who went on to have fantastic careers, is not a very long one. That list would include, for example, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Frank Robinson, Alex Rodriguez and a handful of others.
Add Mike Trout to that list. Sure, it’s true that Trout’s future is yet to be written, but other than the possibility of injury, there is no reason to think that we’re not looking at the next Stan Musial or Mickey Mantle.
All Trout has done so far is hit a league-leading .351 to go along with a circuit-pacing 78 runs scored in just 80 games. Oh, and did I mention he’s also stolen the most bases in the A.L. (35) while being caught an absurdly low 3 times? How about that 180 OPS+, also the best in the junior league.
The fact is, pitchers have to learn to stop “Messin’ with the Kid. Here’s a direct appeal to MLB pitchers from Junior Wells and Buddy Guy, so listen up.
Meanwhile, up in New York, the Yankees have added both age and depth to their first-place team by trading for Seattle’s most famous icon (and, no, I don’t mean Starbucks.)
Ichiro Suzuki has been a fixture in the Mariners outfield since he burst on the Major League scene in 2001.
But after 11 1/2 years in Seattle the former MVP has finally been granted his wish to play for a team that could well find itself in the World Series this year.
Ichiro has accumulated over 2,500 hits in his MLB career along with a career batting average of .322. The ten time All-Star and future Hall of Famer has won 10 Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, and has led the A.L. in hits seven times. He has been a one-of-a-kind player in his generation.
Yet Ichiro is also 38-years old, and clearly isn’t the player he once was. His OPS+ of 82 this season is unimpressive, while his batting average is just .261. Though it’s true he still has some value, it is clear he is no longer able to do “The Things That {he} Used To Do.”
I’ll let the immortal Stevie Ray Vaughan spell it out for you.
I wasn’t sure he could do it again.
I’m talking about the Tigers Uber-Ace, 29-year old Justin Verlander. Last year, he won both the Cy Young award and the MVP award. It was perhaps asking too much for a repeat performance, yet Verlander is not far off last year’s pace.
Granted, Verlander won’t finish this season with a 24-5 record, as he did in 2011. His record currently stands at 11-7, but he has pitched better than that. Verlander leads the A.L. in innings pitched, complete games, and fewest hits surrendered per nine innings. His ERA is just .23 higher than last year. He is second in his league in strikeouts, starts and WHIP, while also leading the league in WAR for pitchers.
Verlander is a polished pitcher with a solid arsenal, but his bread and butter pitch is an old-fashioned 100 mile per hour fastball. His is the ultimate power arm. His nickname should be the “Smoking Gun,” ’cause that’s what he brings to the table.
So let’s dedicate this next song, “Smoking Gun,” performed by the smooth as silk Robert Cray, in honor of Verlander’s awesome right arm.
When we were kids, our best pitcher would always pitch the most games. Sounds logical, right? In the Majors, of course, things are much different. Sure, it’s true that a relief pitcher will probably appear in more games than a typical starting pitcher. That’s the nature of the job. But, apparently, it doesn’t necessarily follow that even your best relief pitcher will lead the staff in appearances.
That honor is often enjoyed by the specialist of all specialists, the situational lefty.
He doesn’t have to be particularly good, mind you, just left-handed.
Situational lefties are the summer school teachers of the bullpen. They’re willing to do the job, and there just ain’t that many others to choose from with their particular mix of modest self-esteem and masochism.
Which explains (though it doesn’t excuse) why lefty Tim Byrdak of the Mets leads the entire Major Leagues in appearances (as of August 1st.)
In 55 appearances, Byrdak has managed to accumulate a paltry 30.1 (not entirely effective) innings pitched. His ERA on the season is 4.45. Apparently, his “situations” have been a bit more challenging for Byrdak than he would like.
But once a Major League manager gets an idea in his head, or develops an irrational affinity for a particular player, there’s just no turning back. So manager Terry Collins runs the 38-year old Byrdak out there about two out of every three games (actually, Byrdak has recently missed a couple of games with a sore knee) and hopes for the best.
Good baseball strategy? Who cares. It’s what’s de rigueur these days in Baseball Land. Obviously, it’s simply impossible to love mediocrity too much. Does it backfire sometimes? Sure, love is like that.
So here’s an ode to loving someone or something too much by the late, great, blind Canadian blues artist, Jeff Healey.
Someday, I’d like to meet an actual Padres fan.
The San Diego Padres were one of baseball’s expansion teams in 1969. Forty-three years after their founding, not only have they not won a World Championship, but they’ve won only one World Series game. (Andy Hawkins beat the Tigers’ Dan Petry, October 10, 1984, 5-3.)
They’ve also never reached the 100-win plateau in any season, topping out at 98 wins in 1998. In fact, they’ve topped 90 wins in a season just four times since the first man walked on the moon.
During their existence, they have lost 520 more games than they’ve won.
Their only league MVP winner, Ken Caminiti in 1996, turned out to be a steroids user, was arrested in a Houston hotel room for possession of crack cocaine, and died prematurely at age 41.
If that’s not enough to give a baseball fan the blues, I don’t know what is.
Sure, other MLB teams have suffered long droughts of futility, but, other than Tony Gwynn, can you give me one reason the Padres haven’t been baseball’s most superfluous team?
The question is, “How Many More Years” will the Padres offer so little in the way of hope and success to their (presumably loyal) fans?
Perhaps it’s time for a little Howlin’ Wolf as an antidote to this historically uncompelling franchise.
With that, my friends, we come to the end of this edition of a “Soundtrack for Baseball.” I hope you enjoyed it. We may do it again in another month.