If you saw his picture after that, you saw the smile;
Not of a man basking in the joy of over a decade in The Show,
No well-earned satisfaction of having reached the top of his ten-inch mountain.
If you saw his picture after that, you saw the smile;
Not of a man basking in the joy of over a decade in The Show,
No well-earned satisfaction of having reached the top of his ten-inch mountain.
"Sentimental Value: The personal value of an object, place or pet derived from the personal memories associated with it." —Jake's Sunday Post
This baseball has 216 single red stitches just like every other baseball made by Rawlings, but it has a very special sentimental value for me. It was a gift to me from a prisoner who plays on the San Quentin Giants baseball team in California's notorious San Quentin State Prison.
Of the twenty-four former ball players making their first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot this past winter, only six received more than five percent of the vote, the threshold for continued eligibility. As all fans know, the members of the Baseball Writers Association of America who comprise the Hall’s electorate favored no candidate, old or new, with the requisite seventy-five percent of the vote for election to the Hall.
If you watch the video on full screen there's not a thing to prevent you from imagining you're sitting right there as he tells his story. Mickey Mantle was my teen-age heart throb and it never really went away. Maybe it was that soft spoken southern drawl or maybe it was just his dang good looks. But no matter, I wasn't the only one.
Once (not that long ago, perhaps) the summers went on
Without end, without disruption, and each day came
Fully equipped with a high sky, the blue so all-encompassing,
So all consuming, that lazy fly balls seemed to disappear
As if God had scooped them up like so many routine grounders.
We played twenty-one, in a field long since abandoned
To crownvetch and scrub grass—five points…
So it’s another early winter in the Bronx. With the Yankees’ season coming to a screeching and emphatic halt Thursday evening in Detroit, both fans and the New York media instantly turned to assigning blame for the Yankees postseason offensive meltdown and speculating on the team’s off-season moves.
I’ve been a Yankees fan all my life. That’s a product of growing up with a love of the Great Game in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., where of course my team was the Senators.
On Tuesday night, Reds prospect Billy Hamilton, a shortstop with the Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos, set a new professional baseball record for stolen bases in a season. He now has 147 steals in 2012.
Hamilton broke the old record set in 1983 by Vince Coleman, then an outfielder on the Cardinals Single-A Macon baseball team. Coleman, of course, went on to steal over 100 bases in each of his first three MLB seasons, and he led the N.L. in steals in each of his first six years. He also led the N.L. in times caught stealing three times during that period (1985-90.)
Coleman went on to steal 752 bags in his career, sixth best all-time. More impressively, Coleman’s successful steal percentage for his career was about 81%.
Yet Vince Coleman ultimately was not a very valuable baseball player. His career WAR was just 10.5, and he never reached 3.0 WAR in any of his 13 seasons. His career OPS+ of 83 is even less impressive. Coleman never reached 25 doubles or even seven home runs in a season, and despite all the plate appearances he accumulated, especially in his first half-dozen years, he reached a hundred runs scored just twice.
All of which brings us back to Billy Hamilton. (And yes, it is a bit ironic that he has the same name as a famous 19th-century baseball player who also stole a lot of bases.)
While his stolen base totals are impressive, there are four things that will enable Hamilton to be a truly valuable MLB player.
1) On-Base Percentage: If he knows how to draw a walk (say, 70-80 per year), those walks will add significant value, as long as he can hit above .275.
2) Gap power: Even though reaching first base appears to be a virtual automatic double with him, he should still (in his prime) be able to drive the ball into the gaps and leg out at least 25-35 doubles and double-digit triples. 50-60 extra base hits per year should be his baseline.
3) Stolen Base percentage: Loads of steals are nice, but the goal is not simply to reach second base (or even third base), it is to score runs. A caught stealing is much more harmful than a stolen base is helpful. If he can steal at something very nearly at (or, preferably, above) an 80% success rate, then all the running will be worthwhile. If he gets caught 30% or more of the time, then this is all much ado about nothing.
4) Defense: Will his quickness on the base-paths translate into good range in the field? Will he end up being a defensive asset? If so, then he becomes much more valuable. If not, then we are looking at a fast guy without a real position, and that means a glorified pinch-runner.
At least three out of these four aptitudes will be necessary for him to be a useful ball player. Two will allow him to hang around for a while. One means a future career as a pinch-runner who ends up back in Triple-A for good before he turns 30. On the other hand, if he hits all four of the above benchmarks, then we might be looking at the next Kenny Lofton or Tim Raines.
It’ll be interesting to see how much the Reds allow him to develop as an actual baseball player before he is let loose on the base-paths. They might be sorry if they rush this kid before he is ready, because though he’d be fun to watch with the one skill he was born with, he’ll be a lot more useful when he is truly Major League ready.
If the decade of the 1970′s is known primarily as the decade of uninhibited excess, that also applies to Major League Baseball’s Hall of Fame during that decade. An astonishing 36 former Major League ball players were inducted during the ’70′s, 22 of them by the Veteran’s Committee alone.
As we have seen here, here, and here, through 1969, approximately 30% or more of the players elected to the Hall of Fame were either borderline candidates, or were outright mistakes. This percentage would become worse by 1980.
Now let’s take a look at what the ’70′s had to offer.
1970: BBWAA – Lou Boudreau V.C. Earle Combs, Jesse Haines
Primarily a member of the Cleveland Indians, Boudreau was arguably the best shortstop in the A.L. during the 1940′s. He led the A.L. in fielding percentage every single season from 1940-49. He also led the league in overall WAR by a position player in both 1943 (6.7) and 1948 (10.5), winning the A.L. MVP award in ’48. A career OPS+ of 120 is very solid for a shortstop, and his career WAR of 56.0 is Hall-worthy.
Earle Combs was the starting center fielder for the ’27 Yankees. He had a great year in ’27 posting a triple slash line of .356 / .414 / .511, with an OPS+ of 141. He also led the league in hits (231) and triples (23) while scoring 137 runs.
But Combs got a late start in the Majors, not becoming a full-time starter until he was 26-years old. He enjoyed nine productive seasons with the Yankees, but a career WAR of 44.7 (despite a career .325 batting average) is sub-par for a HOF candidate.
Combs was a very good player, but not quite Hall of Fame good.
At first glance, Jesse Haines appears to have been the Rick Reuschel of his era (the ’20′s and ’30′s.) They each won a little over 200 games, tossed over 3,000 innings during 19 seasons,, and posted ERA+’s a little better than Replacement Level.
But Reuschel had a much higher WAR than Haines (66.3 to 33.8.) If Reuschel doesn’t belong in The Hall (although a case can be made that he does), then Haines certainly does not, either.
1971: V.C. Dave Bancroft, Jake Beckley, Chick Hafey, Harry Hooper, Joe Kelley, Rube Marquard
Apparently, the Veteran’s Committee had fond memories of Dave, Jake, Chick, Harry, Joe and Rube. But are all six of them really solid choices for the Hall of Fame?
Bancroft could field well, but as an overall player, he appears to have been a hybrid of Gary Templeton and Phil Rizzuto. Led the league in times caught stealing (27) in his rookie year. Career WAR: 46.4. Not a positive addition to The Hall of Fame.
Beckley had a career WAR of 61.5. He was never really a great player, but was consistent over a lot of years. He led his league in triples once, and nothing else over a 20-year career. He never finished higher than 5th place in WAR in any season. Reasonably decent addition to The Hall, but not a true immortal.
Chick Hafeywas a rich man’s Mike Greenwell. Hafey could hit pretty well, but didn’t remain productive for very long. Won a batting title. Average defensive outfielder. Just 1,466 career hits. Career WAR: 29.5. Not a useful addition to The Hall.
Harry Hooper played alongside Tris Speaker and Duffy Lewis in the great Red Sox outfield of the early 1900′s. Of the three, however, only Speaker deserves to be in The Hall. Hooper’s career triple slash line stands at .281 / .368 / .387.
Career OPS+ 114. Career WAR: 52.5. An excellent defensive outfielder with a career Def. WAR of 8.4. At best, however, a borderline HOF’er.
Joe Kelley is certainly one of the most anonymous players in the Hall of Fame. Enjoyed a few fine seasons in the 1890′s playing for Brooklyn. His 194 career triples are 9th best of all-time. Career OPS+ is a very decent 133. Career WAR: 55.5. About as borderline HOF as they come.
In 1912, pitching for the Giants, Rube Marquard was a great pitcher. He led the Giants, and the N.L., with 26 wins. The previous year he had led the league with 237 strikeouts. But by age 27, he was a shadow of his former self. He hung around the majors to win 201 games, but his career WAR: 28.5, reveals how little he actually accomplished over the rest of his career. Marquard does not belong in The Hall.
Yogi Berra won ten World Series rings. Career WAR: 61.9 (fifth best among catchers.) 358 career home runs. Three MVP awards. Strangely, Berra never led the league in any offensive category even once in his career. That seems pretty unlikely for such a good hitter who played nearly 20-years, if you think about it.
Few players in baseball history have attained the untarnished legendary status of Sandy Koufax. During a six-year period, 1961-66, he was among the very best pitchers who ever lived, winning three Cy Young awards in his last four seasons. He struck out over 300 batters three times, tossing four no-hitters in his career. Koufax compiled an astounding 47.6 WAR during those half-dozen years, an average of 7.9 WAR per year.
He accomplished all of this with style, dignity and professionalism seldom equaled in baseball history.
In 23 years in the Majors, Early Wynn enjoyed about five very good seasons and several other decent ones. He topped 20 wins five times, led the league in strikeouts twice, and finished his career with an even 300 wins (against 244 losses.) Career WAR: 52.0. Career OPS+ 1o7. Even with 300 wins, Wynn is a borderline HOF’er.
The Veteran’s Committee must have confused Lefty Gomez with Lefty Grove. But Gomez, despite pitching for the great Yankee teams of the 1930′s, won just 189 games in his career. He led the league in wins twice, ERA twice, and ERA+ twice. Basically, he had two great years and a few other good ones. Career WAR: 43.0. Does not actually belong in The Hall.
Ross Youngs: One of the most random of all Hall of Fame choices. Young played just ten seasons in the Majors, from 1917-26 for the Giants. He was a legitimate hitter, posting a career batting average of .322 and a career OPS+ of 130. But he compiled just 1,491 hits in his career, and scored only 812 runs. His career just wasn’t long enough nor impressive enough to merit Hall induction. Poor choice.
1973: BBWAA – Roberto Clemente, Warren Spahn V.C. George Kelly, Mickey Welch
Roberto Clemente: Warrior on the field, apostle of peace off the field. Lived and died a hero to millions. Even the Hall isn’t big enough to encompass his legacy.
Warren Spahn: Who is the greatest left-handed pitcher in baseball history? Spahn has a legitimate case. His 363 career victories are the most since the end of WWII, and the sixth most in history. He reached 20-wins in a season a ridiculous 13 times, leading the league in wins eight times. His career WAR: 93.4, is 11th best among pitchers in MLB history, and is second only to Lefty Grove among left-handers. An obvious choice for The Hall.
George “High Pockets” Kelly is yet another early 20th century Irishmen in The Hall. The V.C. was also going through a Giants fetish at this time, thus a player with 819 runs scored, an OPS+ of 109, and a career WAR of 24.3 is in The Hall. But he did have a cool nickname.
Mickey Welch: My favorite stat for Welch is that he won 44 games in 1885, and did NOT lead the league in that category. His 574 innings pitched in 1880 (age 20) also did not lead the league. He won 307 games against 210 losses. Career ERA+ 114. Career WAR: 56.5. Ah, hell. Put him in. They don’t make ‘em like that anymore.
1974: BBWAA – Whitey Ford, Mickey Mantle V.C. Jim Bottomley, Sam Thompson
It’s beautiful symmetry when two long-time teammates go into The Hall together. Mantle and Ford are not only two of the greatest Yankees of all-time, they are both among the greatest players who ever lived. Mantle is in the top ten. Ford is a top 40 pitcher. Both are certainly qualified for The Hall.
Jim Bottomley was a slugger for the Cardinals in the 1920′s and early ’30′s. He won the N.L. MVP award in 1928. He drove in a lot of runs, pounded his fair share of extra base hits, and finished with a career OPS+ of 124. A crummy defensive player, Bottomley finished with a career WAR of 32.4. I don’t quite see a HOF caliber player here.
Sam Thompson was a 19th century player who led his league in one category or another 21 times. An OPS+ of 146 is very impressive. Not a high career WAR, but they played somewhat fewer games per season back then. He’s a legit HOF’er.
1975: BBWAA – Ralph Kiner V.C. Earl Averill, Billy Herman
I seem to remember Bill James casting aspersions on Kiner’s selection to The Hall. Kiner played only ten seasons in The Majors with the Pirates in the 1940′s and ’50′s, but led the league in home runs in each of his first seven consecutive seasons. He also drew a lot of walks, scored a lot of runs, and drove in a lot of runs through age 30.
But after that, his career went downhill fast. Although his career OPS+ is a very impressive 149, his WAR is just 45.9. Sort of a cross between Jim Rice and Rocky Colavito. Sprinkle in just a touch of Dave Kingman. Bake at 375 degrees on a hot Pittsburgh summer day, and voila, you have yet another borderline HOF’er. Bon appetit!
For some reason, Earl Averill got a very late start in The Majors, not breaking in until he was already 27-years old. Played centerfield reasonably well for the Indians in the ’30′s piling up some pretty nice offensive numbers for a decade. But his late start and rapid descent after age 36 results in a relatively low career WAR of 45. If Averill’s in, there is no excuse to fuss and fight over Jim Edmonds’ candidacy a few years from now.
A well-respected player, Billy Herman was a ten-time N.L. All-Star selection. During his 15-year career with the Cubs and Dodgers, he had three 200-hit seasons, topped 2,300 hits, and led his league once each in hits, doubles and triples. Not much power. Good fielder. Career OPS+ 112. WAR: 55.6.
If we arbitrarily establish that every position player with a career WAR of 55.0 or higher automatically gets into The Hall, then we have 141 position players (Jack Clark representing the last man in.) But we lose three great catchers: Bill Dickey, Mickey Cochrane and Buck Ewing. If we drop the standard down to 50.0, we gain those three, plus we add Ted Simmons and Gabby Hartnett (as well as Cesar Cedeno, Ron Cey and Fred McGriff.) Not that the Hall of Fame should exactly mirror the Hall of WAR, but the question is, how exclusive do you want The Hall to be?
1976: BBWAA – Bob Lemon, Robin Roberts V.C. Roger Connor, Freddie Lindstrom
Bob Lemon – The bastard child of Allie Reynolds and Hal Newhouser. Three-time winner of the Sporting News Pitcher of the Year award. Seven-time All Star. Seven time 20-game winner. Led league in complete games five times. 207-128 record. 3.28 ERA. Career ERA+ 119 is the same as Ron Guidry and Warren Spahn. WAR: 42.4. Took about a dozen years for the BBWAA to finally decide this one. If you prefer the more modern stats, he’s probably not your man. But he’s not a poor choice, either.
Robin Roberts is a solid member of the Hall of Fame. For six consecutive seasons, 1950-55, he won at least 20 games, adding 19 wins in 1956. During that stretch, this Phillies ace led the N.L. in wins four times, complete games and innings pitched five times, and strikeouts twice. Won 286 games against 245 losses. He also led all N.L. pitchers in WAR four times. Career WAR of 80.9 is outstanding.
Roger Connor was one of the finest corner infielders of the last two decades of the 19th century. Career OPS+ 153 is outstanding. WAR: 87.2. Kudos to the V.C. for getting this one right.
Freddie Lindstrom: Yet another Giant who played in the mid-to-late 1920′s and early ’30′s. Led N.L. in hits once. Had a pair of 231 hit seasons. Reached 100 games played in just eight seasons. Career WAR: 29.2. There is really no objective reason why he should be in The Hall of Fame.
1977: BBWAA – Ernie Banks V.C. Amos Rusie, Joe Sewell
Ernie “Let’s Play Two” Banks, except these days you have to spring for a day-night doubleheader. Ah, nothing is sacred anymore. ”Mr. Cub” began his career with Chicago at age 22 in 1953, and retired with Chicago at age 40 in 1971. Won back-to-back MVP awards in 1958-59. Ranks 21st on the home run list with 512. Easy choice for The Hall.
Amos Rusie pitched for just ten seasons between 1889 and 1901. Won a lot of games. Lost a lot of games. Pitched a ton of complete games, as was the fashion back then. Seems to have been one of the better pitchers of his era. ERA+129. WAR: 60.6. And, of course, he played for the Giants. The “ayes” have it.
Joe Sewell was a pretty good shortstop who played primarily for Cleveland in the 1920′s. Had one of the worst years in history attempting to steal bases. In 1927, he attempted to steal a base 19 times, and was thrown out 16 times. Ouch. Career OPS+ 108. A good player, but not really good enough for The Hall.
1978: BBWAA – Eddie Mathews V.C. Addie Joss
Who was the greatest third baseman in history before Mike Schmidt came along? It must have been Eddie Mathews. A true immortal.
I’ve been intrigued by Addie Joss for a long time. As far as I know, he is the only player in The Hall for whom they waived the Ten Year Rule, as Joss was struck down with a fatal disease (meningitis) after just nine years in the Majors.
His career numbers are unbelievable. In five of his nine seasons, his ERA was under 2.00. His career ERA of 1.89 is the second best in history, accumulated in over 2,327 innings pitched. His career WHIP, .0968 is the best in Major League history. His ERA+ of 142 is sixth best in history among starting pitchers who pitched at least 1,500 innings. The Veteran’s Committee was right to waive the Ten Year Rule for Joss.
1979: BBWAA – Willie Mays V.C. Hack Wilson
Willie Mays: Among the top five, maybe the top three, players who ever put on a baseball uniform. I always wondered why when Ted Williams was still alive, he, not Mays (nor Aaron for that matter) was always introduced as the Greatest Living Player. Williams was the greatest natural hitter, but Mays was the better all around player.
Hack Wilson was a barrel-chested masher who still holds (and probably always will) the record for most RBI in a season (191 in 1930.) Led N.L. in home runs four times. Had six seasons with over 100 RBI. But do you know what? He still finished his career with fewer total RBI than Jeff Conine. Also hit 56 home runs in 1930, but finished his career with only 244 homers, one less than Mickey Tettleton. Played centerfield, but not very well. Career WAR: 39.1. Not a HOF’er.
Our overall tally, then, for this decade is 16 definite HOF’ers, 8 marginal choices and, unfortunately, 12 poor choices. In effect, Hall voters may have missed the mark on up to 56% of their choices, an astoundingly high total. The 1970′s, then, severely undermined the argument that only the best of the best are worthy of Hall induction.
If there ever was a Golden Age of Hall induction, clearly, we appear to be moving further away from it.
Perhaps the situation improved during the 1980′s. We’ll check out that decade next time.
But before I go any further, let me briefly state, as I did in Part 1, that the purpose of this series is to incrementally improve the Hall of Fame one player at a time. It is not, therefore, to find the perfect, overlooked Hall of Famer.
Also, let me be clear that these are meant to be purely hypothetical arguments. I am not suggesting that the readers of this blog should Occupy the Hall until certain HOF plaques are removed, to be replaced by more deserving players.
Having said that, one of the worst mistakes the Veteran’s committee has ever made was to vote to induct former Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Lloyd (Little Poison) Waner into the Hall of Fame.
Lloyd Waner, the younger brother of legitimate HOF’er Paul Waner, never received more than 23% of the vote of the BBWAA in all his years on the HOF ballot. Yet, in 1967, the Veteran’s Committee, apparently influenced by Lloyd’s inflated batting averages and not much else, voted to pair Lloyd with his brother in The Hall.
At first glance, there is a case to be made for Lloyd Waner, who played from 1927-45.
Although he never won a batting title, Little Poison enjoyed ten seasons in which he batted over .300. He enjoyed four 200 hit campaigns in his first five seasons, including a league-leading 214 hits in 1931. He also led the league in triples with 20 in 1929, and he scored over 100 runs in each of his first three seasons. He also led the N.L. in at bats three times.
A good center fielder, Waner led the senior circuit in put outs four times, in fielding percentage three times, and in range factor three times as well. Had the Gold Glove been awarded in his era, he would probably have won three or four.
Waner retired after an 18-year Major League career (the first 14 with the Pirates) at the age of 39. But his last truly productive season occurred in 1938, when Waner was 32-years old.
His final career numbers are as follows: 2,459 hits, 281 doubles, 118 triples, 27 home runs, 1,201 runs scored, 598 RBI, 67 stolen bases, and 420 bases on balls. His 426 career extra base hits is one of the lowest totals by any position player in The Hall.
His career triple slash line is .316 / .353 / .393. While the batting average is 69th best of all-time, he played in an era when it was very common to bat over .300. Drawing few walks, Waner’s on-base percentage is not impressive at all for his era. And his slugging percentage is abysmal for any era.
Lloyd Waner’s career WAR is 24.3, also among the lowest in The Hall. Perhaps most damning is his career OPS+ of 99, which means he was actually one point below the average replacement level player.
Waner was a good player who hit a ton of singles, (2,033 of his hits were singles, good for 41st all-time), scored lots of runs in his first three years (in a huge run-scoring era), played some good defense, and not much else.
Lloyd Waner simply does not belong in the Hall of Fame.
A better candidate for The Hall would be a slugger now almost forgotten by the under-40 year old baseball fan, former Atlanta Braves center fielder Dale Murphy.
There are actually a few similarities between Lloyd Waner and Dale Murphy. They each played approximately 14 of their first 18 years with one team (the Pirates and Braves, respectively.) They each peaked at about 23% of the vote of the BBWAA for Hall induction, and each of their careers were essentially over before they turned 33-years of age.
But there are also several important differences between these two center fielders.
From 1980, when he became a full-time outfielder for the Braves (he came up as a catcher) through 1987, Dale Murphy was arguably the best player in the National League. He won two N.L. MVP awards (1982-83), and he finished in the top 10 in two other seasons (1984-85.)
Dale Murphy was a seven time All-Star, he won five Gold Gloves, and he was a four-time winner of the Silver Slugger award. An iron man, Murphy played every single game from 1982-’85, and he missed a total of five games over a six-year period.
Unlike Lloyd Waner, Murphy also had a lot of power. Six times he hit at least 30 home runs in a season, leading the league twice. He slugged a career-high 44 home runs in 1987. He also led the league in slugging percentage twice, Runs Batted In two times, and OPS once.
Murphy drove in over 100 runs five times, drew over 90 walks in a season four times, and topped .900 OPS four times. Whereas Lloyd Waner’s single-season best OPS+ was just 116, Murphy reached an OPS+ of at least 135 in six different seasons.
Dale Murphy’s career WAR of 44.2 is also significantly better than Waner’s.
Murphy finished his career with 2,111 hits, 350 doubles, 39 triples, 398 home runs, 1,197 runs scored, 1,266 RBI, 161 stolen bases, and 986 walks. Waner has the edge in hits, runs scored (though not by many) and triples. Murphy has a big edge in doubles, home runs, extra base hits, stolen bases, RBI and walks.
Dale Murphy’s career OPS+ of 121 is also better than Waner’s score of 99. And although Waner ranks 41st all-time in singles, Murphy ranks 5oth all-time in home runs. Whom would you rather have?
Therefore, in our ongoing quest to clean up The Hall, Dale Murphy would make a more than adequate replacement for Lloyd Waner in the Hall of Fame.
Stay tuned for the next installment of this series, with a movie review coming soon as well.
Back on New Year’s Eve, waiting for that damn ball to drop in Times Square so that I could go to bed, I decided to write one last blog-post for 2009.
The post was in regards to the Mets (then) recent signing of free agent Jason Bay. I thought it was a horrible move at the time, and now that the Mets have shut down Bay due to injury after what has been a miserable season for him, I decided to go back and look at what I wrote about this signing on December 31st.
Jason Bay’s final stats for 2010: 6 home runs, 47 RBI, .259 Batting Average, .402 Slugging Percentage, .749 OPS. But somehow, he was successful in all ten of his stolen base attempts. Go figure.
If anything, then, I was too overly optimistic about the level of success Bay would achieve in his first year in New York.
I am not linking you back to this article merely to gloat, although it is always nice to be right, but to reflect upon the circumstances and irrational thought processes that cause organizations and individuals to make transparently bad decisions.
So, I submit for your approval, the link to “Keeping the Wolves at Bay.”
I also wanted to let you, my faithful readers, know that I am now writing for Books on Baseball as well: http://www.booksonbaseball.com/ If you haven’t yet checked out this website, give it a look.
Thanks for stopping by, Bill