The On Deck Circle

Baseball History, Commentary and Analysis

American League Baseball Predictions – 2013

This is the time of year when many of us baseball bloggers get carried away with what we think we know, and proceed to make fools of ourselves by attempting to predict the future of the impending baseball season.  The great thing about these sorts of predictions, of course, is that no one ever goes back to check them out.  Did you predict, for example, that the Red Sox would win the World Series last season under new manager Bobby Valentine?  See?  No one remembers you made that hideous prediction, so you don’t have to hide your head in shame.

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper (Photo credit: L. Richard Martin, Jr.)

Having said that, it is cool when you turn out to be right.  For example, around three years ago, I predicted on this site that if anyone was to ever win the Triple-Crown again, it would be Miguel Cabrera (seriously, I did.)  Last spring, I correctly predicted that David Price would win the A.L. Cy Young award, and that the Nationals Bryce Harper would be N.L. Rookie of the Year.  Incidentally, here’s what I said about the Red Sox new manager Bobby Valentine: “Bobby V. is too much of a lightning rod for this to be a smooth year in Boston.”

In fairness, I do have to admit that I thought the Phillies would win the N.L. East (they finished right at .500) and that the Rays would win the A.L. East (they won 90 games, but finished 3rd.)  I also picked the A’ for last in the A.L. West, so of course they won their division.  For N.L. Cy Young, I picked the Brewers Yovani Gallardo.  He did win 16 games and led the league with 33 starts, and he did strike out 204 batters in 204 innings (his 4th straight 200-K season), but his ERA was a rather high 3.66 and his WHIP was 1.304.  In other words, he wasn’t really all that close to winning the Cy Young award.

Now, with little in the way of insightful analysis, here are my predictions for 2013.

American League

East

1)  Tampa Bay – Still the best pitching and most overall talent of the bunch.  Longoria will win MVP award.

2)  Toronto – Made a big splash in the off-season, but that doesn’t always portend a division title.

3)  Baltimore – Could be for real after-all.  Over-achieved last year, but Yanks & BoSox are ripe for the picking.

4)  New York – Older and more obsolete than last month’s Apple product, and more expensive as well.

5)  Boston – Forensic examiners are still trying to piece together last year’s car-wreck.  Lester becomes Steve Avery.

Central 

1)  Detroit – Verlander and Scherzer K nearly 500 guys between them.  V-Mart is back.  Another division title.

2)  Kansas City –  Acquisition James Shields adds credibility, and young hitters step up and rake = 2 game over .500.

3)  White Sox – Konerko & Co. can pound the ball, but team is full of inconsistent players = 2 games under .500.

4)  Cleveland – Went out and got Michael Bourn (The Bourne Futility), but this is still a 76 win team.

5)  Minnesota – Mauer turns 30 in April.  His knees turn 38.  Scott Diamond is the de facto ace of the staff. ‘Nuff said.

West

1)  Anaheim – Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton, oh my!  Trout is great again, and this time, all the pieces fit = 93 wins.

2)  Texas - G.M. Nolan Ryan finally gives up on manager Ron Washington this year as Rangers win fewer than 90.

3)  A’s – Nice year last year.  Solid group of young pitchers, and a sound organization = 85 wins.  Poverty sucks.

4)  Seattle – Like the ugliest kid in the class, Seattle is now thrilled that a new uglier kid, Houston, has just moved in.

5)  Houston – Remember the glory days of Bagwell, Biggio, & Berkman, or Wynn, Richard & Cedeno?  Ancient history.

The Angels go to the World Series, and lose in seven games.

Next up, my National League Predictions for 2013.

About these ads

Single Post Navigation

24 thoughts on “American League Baseball Predictions – 2013

  1. Well I don’t mind your prediction of the Sox and Yankees both being terrible this year. But please please please let us finish ahead of the Evil Empire.

    Say did you see that pic of John Lackey from spring training? He lost a ton of weight, he will probably still be terrible but it looks like he laid off the fried chicken and beer this off-season.

    • Now that the Yanks have lost Teixeira and Granderson for a good chunk of the beginning of the year, the Sox certainly have an opening to at least keep pace. Yeah, I saw the “new” Lackey. But five straight years of decline will be hard to turnaround at age 34, and with Fenway has your home park. Anyway, if Lester doesn’t turn it around, their goose is cooked.
      Thanks for stopping by,
      Bill

  2. Pingback: New York Yankees: 2013 season predictions

  3. Mike Cornelius on said:

    I agree that this is shaping up to be a long year in the Bronx, but from 95 wins to 4th place? Behind the Orioles, who having sat out the offseason have to believe they can somehow replicate last year’s magic? Sounds like a prediction made by a Mets fan!! Unless of course you turn out to be right!

    Great job as always,
    Mike

    • Hi Mike, the thing about finishing fourth of course, is that it’s all relative. Perhaps they win 79 games, or 81, or 83…who knows? But I don’t see them winning as many as 90 games, and although the Orioles were very lucky last year, their young players have had an extra season to develop, while the Yanks have had an extra season to get (much) older. So, if the Orioles win just 83 games, and the Yanks win 82, there’s not a great deal of difference either way. But I don’t see either of them making the playoffs.
      Thanks so much for climbing aboard again,
      Bill

  4. I think I would put Boston higher than last. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Farrell, but they have some good talent this year (of course, they did last year, as well). I was definitely not one who picked them to win under Valentine. I don’t think they will win this year, either, but I sure hope it’s better than last season. I do think Toronto will be a force, though. I desperately hope you are wrong about the Rays. :-) Baltimore = “Rangers East.” :-D

    I’m with you on the Rangers, too. They did virtually nothing of value during the off season, and Ron Washington’s true “talent” blazed like an out of control wildfire at the end of last season. I’ve never been a big fan of his (I live 10 miles from Rangers Ballpark), and think he has been extremely lucky. I don’t know about Anaheim, though. I don’t think Scoscia is that great a manager, either. They should have done better last year. You’re right…with all that talent, they should. We’ll see, I guess. I don’t look to see Oakland repeat.

    I think you’re spot on in the central, although I would like to see Tito do well in Cleveland. I’m a big fan of him.

    • Hi Jeff, I guess the question is, if not Boston in last place, then whom? Perhaps Baltimore is the only other team I can see finishing in last place, but that would be quite a drop from making the playoffs last year. I guess I picked Boston in last because someone has to finish there, though I do think that they’ll obviously be better than they were last year.
      Tito deserved better than the way he was treated. I wouldn’t mind seeing him do well, either.
      Thank, as always,
      Bill

  5. Again, I’m pretty much on board with your picks, though I can’t see the Orioles finishing ahead of the Yankees; they were just ridiculously lucky last year.

    An aside to Mr. Slater–Orioles closer Jim Johnson is a graduate of Union-Endicott High School, and Twins “ace” Scott Diamond is a graduate of SUNY-Binghamton. Those Southern Tier guys are everywhere.

    • I had a hard time picking between the Yanks and the Orioles for third place. You’re right, the Orioles were extremely lucky last year, something like 29-9 in one-run games (best in history, I believe.) At the same time, I think the Yanks are going to crash and burn this year, perhaps not as horribly as Boston did last year, but worse than expected. Neither team makes the playoffs, however, so I guess it’s moot.
      Cheers,
      Bill

  6. Solid picks overall, but I think Shields will be missed and TB drops to second. Funny thing about that is I do think they did great in that trade and that KC ends up sorry, I think KC misses the playoffs.

    Who are your WC choices, or must we wait for another post?

    • I think the Angels, Rays, Tigers, and Blue Jays are the four best teams. The fifth and final playoff spot could end up being either Texas, the A’s, the White Sox, or the Royals. I just don’t see the Orioles getting back there, and I have my doubts about the White Sox and the A’s as well. That leaves either Texas or K.C.
      I’ll take the Nationals over the Angels for the World Championship.
      Thanks for reading,
      Bill

  7. I’m glad that you predicted Tampa Bay for first place, but for the silliest reason. Their manager, Joe Maddon, looks almost exactly like Captain Binghamton (played by the late Joe Flynn) on “McHale’s Navy” (television situation comedy starring Ernest Borgnine), and Captain Binghamton was a RIOT! The show wouldn’t have been at all funny without him! (I’ll send you an e-mail, Bill, with pictures of Captain Binghamton, and you can decide for yourself if I’m right!)

    Do I remember the days of Wynn and Cedeno in Houston??? Heck, I remember the days of Jerry Reuss, Tom Griffin, Denny Lemaster, Larry Dierker, Johnny Edwards, Joe Morgan, Jimmy Wynn, Bob Watson, Denis Menke, Doug Rader, Jim Ray, Jack Billingham, Cesar Geronimo, Fred Gladding, Roger Metzger, Norm Miller, and others, as well, playing for the Astros. BEFORE Cesar Cedeno ever put on an Astros uniform. (I guess that makes me kind of old, right???)

    Glen

    • Hi Glen, I go back to the “Bad News Bears” days of the Houston Astros: Cedeno, Wynn, Jose Cruz, J.R. Richard, etc. They always had some fine players. Too bad this franchise has fallen so far so fast. As for McHale’s Navy, I do remember watching the reruns of that show when I was a kid. I remember Ernest Borgnine, but not the captain. I liked that show, along with F-Troop and several other shows from the ’60’s that were in syndication when I was a kid in the ’70’s.
      Thanks for reading,
      Bill

      • Jeez, I remember Jose Cruz when he first came up to the majors with the Cardinals.

        You’re so right about the Astros always having really good players, including fine pitching staffs and great hitters. You’d think they would have put it together, but a couple of things prevented that. One was being in the Western Division of the National League, which was the toughest division in baseball. It was always between the Reds and the Dodgers for first place, and then if you were even in third place, you were usually about 30 games out by June. (Maybe an exaggeration there.) The other thing that hurt the Astros was playing in the Astrodome; they had all those power hitters—- John Mayberry, Lee May, Cesar Cedeno, Bob Watson and others, but the Astrodome didn’t yield too many homers. Poor Lee May—- he had a lot of home runs in Cincinnati; being traded to the Astros and playing in the Astrodome killed his career.

        Glen

      • You’re exactly right about the old Astrodome. I’ve always said that if you swapped Jimmy Wynn and Jim Rice, putting Wynn in Fenway for his home games, and Rice in the Astrodome for his, Wynn would now be in the Hall of Fame, and Rice would be just another outfielder that only a few die-hards would remember. And, yeah, that N.L. West was pretty solid. Even the Giants could be feisty and competitive in those days.
        Cheers, Bill

  8. Bill,

    I absolutely agree with you, the Yankees are a 4th place team. It’s going to be a real challenge for them to play .500 ball. At least that can still beat up on the Mets during inter-league play.

    Kevin

    • Yes, I’m sure the Mets will still find ways to lose to the Yanks in inter-league play (which, frankly, I’ve grown somewhat bored with.)

    • who would a known brain cashman or whoever it was could find life in overbay, hafner, wells, and now i’m sure there will be new replacements.

      • Been lucky so far, but they’ve drifted down to third place, just 1 1/2 games ahead of young Tampa Bay. Don’t see a pennant in the Yanks crystal ball this season. And now you’ve got the obligatory A-Rod drama.

  9. I had forgotten that Houston moved to the American League. Did that really happen? Oh my! Lucky Seattle.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,284 other followers

%d bloggers like this: