Hall of Fame Voting at the Neighborhood Diner

Originally, this was going to be one part of a much larger post on Hall of Fame voting by the Veteran’s Committee in 1970, but it took on a life of its own.  So I decided to turn it into a stand-alone blog-post.  It’s my version of what Hall of Fame voting must look like when the Veteran’s Committee is assembled and comes together for discussion.

Imagine, if you will, several members of the Veteran’s Committee having lunch together in a diner somewhere in up-state New York one late fall day in 1970, the day their final Hall of Fame ballots are due.

V.C. #1:  Anyone remember to bring the list?

V.C. #2:  I thought you were bringing it?

V.C.  #3:  Jesus, how we supposed to vote if nobody brought the list?

V.C.  #4:  I got the list, at least part of it.  I wrote it down on a napkin before we left ’cause I knew you boneheads would forget.

V.C.  #2:  Nice going.  Let’s see it.  (#4 hands over the list.)  Jesus, what were you eating when you wrote the list, spaghetti?  This is disgusting.

V.C. #1:  Come on, just read us the names, if you can make them out.

V.C. #2:  All right, all right, calm down.  I’m getting to it.

(Waitress come over, pours coffee into ceramic mugs, and takes their orders.)

V.C. #5:  What kind of pie you got here?

Waitress:  Chocolate cream, lemon merengue, apple, banana cream-

V.C. #5 (Cuts her off) I’ll have the banana cream.

V.C. #3:  I thought you was on a diet?

V.C. #5:  I am.  I’m just getting pie, no meat or potatoes or nothing else.  Just pie and coffee.  And anyways, bananas are healthy.

(The rest of the committee members order.  Waitress sticks her pencil behind her right ear, frowns, and leaves.)

V.C. #1:  So anyone gonna read the list, or are we just going to eat pie all day?

V.C. #2:  O.K., here we go:  There’s Hafey, Bancroft, Beckley, Marquard, Hooper, and Kelley.

(Blank stares all around.  V.C. #5 pours a thimble of coffee creamer into his black coffee, and begins to stir it with a dirty tea-spoon.)

V.C. #5:  Any of these guys got first names?

V.C. #6:  Marquard, didn’t he used to pitch?  (They all look up in surprise.  They’d forgotten he was there.)

V.C. #1:  Yeah, I think so.  And Hooper played outfield for the Red Sox back when my dad was a kid.  Dad said he was real good.  Played next to Speaker before The Babe left for New York.

V.C. #3:  Did you say Bancroft?  Who the hell was Bancroft?

V.C. #5:  Doesn’t he own that used car parts place over in Haverstraw?

V.C. #2:  That’s Bruntkoff, and I’m guessing this Bancroft guy must be dead by now.  These guys all played 60 or 80 years ago.  That’s why we’re called the freakin’ Veteran’s Committee, moron.

V.C. #4:  So anyone know anything else about Marquard other than he used to pitch?

(Waitress comes over with their lunch orders.  Passes around an arm full of dishes.  She looks over at V.C. #4.)

Waitress:  You mean Rube Marquard, the old-time baseball player?

(They all stop chewing their food and look up at her as if she’d just grown a third breast.)

V.C. #4:  Yeah, I guess.

Waitress:  Pitched for the Giants back before W.W.I.  (They continue to stare at her in anticipation of some reasonable explanation.)  My great-uncle used to pal around with him.  Got his autograph and one of his old gloves.  He used to say that in his prime, Marquard was every bit as good as Mathewson.

(She pours some more coffee and walks away.)

V.C. #1:  Well how the hell you like that?

V.C. #3:  I like it a lot.  See if I can get her phone number.

V.C.  #5:  Mathewson.  Who’s Mathewson?

V.C.  #4:  Jesus, ya donut-hole.  Maybe she should replace you on this committee.

V.C.  #6:  Mathewson was one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  He’s already in The Hall.

(Pause all around.)

V.C.  #2:  Well, that’s good enough for me.  Everyone in favor of putting Marquard in The Hall say aye.

(Ayes all around.  It’s unanimous.)

V.C.  #3:  (Looking down at his plate.  A mass of tangled reddish meat drowns slowly in something white.)  Oh my God, I didn’t order this!

V.C. #4:  That’s creamed chipped beef.

V.C. #3:  I ordered Corned beef.  Not this mess of crap.

V.C. #6:  I think you told her chipped beef.

V.C. #3:  No way I’d say that.  Look at this shit.  I mean, what the hell is it, anyway?

V.C. #1:  All in favor of putting Hooper in The Hall, say aye.

V.C. #2:  Wait a minute.  Who said he was really great?

V.C.  #1: My dad. (Looks at V.C. #2 challengingly.)

V.C. #2:  (Stares back for a long moment.)  O.K., what the hell.  No use arguing about it.

V.C. #1:  As I said, all in favor of Hooper, say aye.  (Ayes all around.)

V.C. #4: Look guys, this can take all day.  I have an idea.
(Looks of relief and hopefulness all around.)

V.C. #4:  Do any of us really have any reason NOT to put these six guys in The Hall?  I mean, do we really know enough about any of them to say that they weren’t good enough?  I mean, hell, Rabbit Freakin’ Maranville is in The Hall.

(Appreciative looks all around.  V.C. #5 balancing his fork carefully, still manages to drop his last piece of pie onto the floor.)

V.C. #1:  You know, boys, he may have a point.
(Conspiratorial looks all around.)

V.C. #2:  All in favor of electing all six of these guys into The Hall, say aye, or otherwise state your objections.

(Ayes all around.  Relief flashes across each of their faces.  Waitress stops by to drop off their check.)

V.C. #3:  Waitress, I didn’t order this.  I asked for corned beef.

Waitress:  We’re out of corned beef.  (She turns and strides off to the next table.)

V.C. #3:  Well, I still ain’t eating this crap.

V.C.#2:  Anyone want to phone in our decision?

V.C. #1:  I’ll do it.  He gets up and walks over to the pay phone.

V.C. #4:  Jesus, he forgot the list again.  (Picks up the napkin to bring over to V.C. #1.)

V.C. #6:  So, who has the road map to get the rest of the way up to Cooperstown?

Blank looks all around.  V.C. #5 tries to hold in a fart, but fails loudly.  The rest get up, toss a few dollars each on the table, and begin putting on their jackets.  It’s a cold afternoon outside.  Too cold for baseball.

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The Baseball Hall of Fame: A Qualitative Analysis, Part 3

The 1960′s was for the Baseball Hall of Fame, as it was for America in general, a decade of turmoil.  It featured some of the highest highs, and the lowest lows.  In 1962, Jackie Robinson became the first African-American to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.  In 1964, President Johnson signed the Civil Rights Bill into law, prohibited discrimination in public places, and made employment discrimination based on race illegal.

By 1965, America was also knee-deep in the jungles of a disastrous war in South-East Asia.  The middle ’60′s also witnessed the equally unforced (though not nearly as serious) error of inducting Eppa Rixey, Elmer Flick, Burleigh Grimes, Lloyd Waner into The Hall.

The hymn of our National Pasttime, “Take Me Out to the Ball Game,” was rapidly being eclipsed in American culture by The Beatles, “Revolution,”  The Doors, “Break On Through,” and Nancy Sinatra’s “These Boots Are Made For Walking.”

As the decade sputtered to a soggy conclusion among the nation’s youth at Woodstock in upstate New York, just a few miles away two of America’s favorite sons, Stan Musial and Roy Campanella were immortalized in Cooperstown, New York.  Seldom had Americans witnessed so much turmoil in a single decade before or since.

In his induction speech in 1966, Ted Williams used the opportunity to call for the induction into The Hall of the great Negro League players of the first half of the 20th century.

America, and the Baseball Hall of Fame, would never be the same.

And yet, among Hall of Fame voters, some things would never change.

If you’ve come with me this far in the series, then you know that the purpose of this multi-part analysis is to find that elusive Golden Age of the Hall of Fame that lots of fans and pundits go on about, when supposedly only the best of the best were inducted.  This mythical quest has been, up to this point, fruitless.

Remember, we are not merely looking for players for whom a legitimate Hall of Fame-worthy case can be made.  We’re looking for only the true immortals, Mt. Olympus-worthy players.

In our two prior installments of this series we discovered, lo and behold, that at least a third of the first 66 players inducted  into The Hall between 1936-59 were not necessarily the Olympian superstars that later generations of fans believed that they must have been.

These choices have had long-term ramifications that continue to haunt Hall of Fame voting up to the present day.

So let’s take a closer look at the 25 players inducted into The Hall from 1961-69.

1961 — VC: Max Carey, Billy Hamilton

Clearly, in ’61, the Veteran’s Committee had a speed fetish.

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Billy Hamilton’s 914 career stolen bases currently rank third all-time, but was the record for 77 years until 39-year old Lou Brock broke it in 1978.  Hamilton led the league in steals five times,  in on-base percentage five times (including an absurd .521 OBP in 1894), in walks five times, and in runs scored four times.  His career OPS+ of 141 is also impressive.  Even including our modern era, Hamilton was probably one of the top three lead-off hitters of all-time.

Hamilton’s addition into The Hall was a rare, astute move by the Veteran’s Committee.

Max Carey was also a lead-off hitter and a prolific base-swiper.  His 738 steals currently ranks 9th all-time.  Overall, though, he was a lot more like Brett Butler than he was Billy Hamilton.  Carey never produced a WAR exceeding 5.4 in any given season.  He never finished higher than 11th in MVP voting.   His career OPS+ is just 107.  But he did lead the league in stolen bases ten times.

Although a case can be made for Max Carey’s election into the HOF, clearly, his career was not that of an elite superstar.

1962 — BBWAA: Bob Feller, Jackie Robinson. VC: Edd Roush

There are still some people out there who believe that the only reason that Jackie Robinson was elected into The Hall was that he broke the color barrier in Major League Baseball, and that his career numbers don’t merit Hall inclusion.  In other words, he was elected as a symbol, not as a ballplayer.

In his relatively short ten year career, however, Robinson scored at least 99 runs in each of his first seven seasons.  He led the league twice in stolen bases.  He won a batting title.  He drove in over a hundred runs in 1949.  He had a career on-base percentage of .409.  His career OPS+ was 131.

Robinson drew 740 walks in his career against fewer than 300 strikeouts.  He had respectable power, slugging at least .500 in five seasons.  Also an asset in the field, he posted a career defensive WAR of 7.8.  He also led the N.L. in offensive WAR for four straight years, 1949-52.

His career WAR, 63.2, is quite high for someone who only played ten years.

Jackie Robinson belongs in The Hall both for his historic contributions to baseball as well as his very significant contributions on the field.

Bob Feller was also a legend in his own time.  By the age of 22, he was already a three-time 20 game winner.  Then he went off to fight in WWII, and missed three of his prime seasons.  Returning from the war, he went on to win 20 games three more times.  A serious power-pitcher, he led the league in strikeouts seven times.  His career record of 266-162 (notice he wasn’t a 300 game winner) and his career WAR of 66.0 (reaching at least 8.6 in three seasons) are the raw material of a Hall of Fame career.

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Edd Roush had a spare “d” in his first name, helped the Reds defeat the White Sox in the 1919 “Black Sox” Series, won a pair of batting titles, and was a pretty darn good player.  His OPS+ of 126 is respectable, as is his 46.5 WAR, but it’s obvious the Veteran’s Committee didn’t upstage the BBWAA’s choices in 1962.

1963 — VC: John Clarkson, Elmer Flick, Sam Rice, Eppa Rixey

Clarkson, with an ERA+ of 134 and a WAR of 82, is definitely deserving.

Flick, like Clarkson, a 19th century player, is also solid. OPS+ 149.

Sam Rice is a bit of a stretch.  Career OPS+112 and 51 WAR is Johnny Damon territory.

Rixey pitched a long time (1912-33) for the Phillies and Reds, posting an respectable 51 career WAR and a mediocre 266-251 record.  He doesn’t seem to have been the best pitcher in his league in any of his 21 seasons, though he was very good for four or five of them.

1964 — BBWAA: Luke Appling. VC: Red Faber, Burleigh Grimes, Tim Keefe, Heinie Manush

Luke “Old Aches and Pains” Appling was a seven-time All Star who won two batting titles and struck out just 528 times in over 10,000 plate appearances.  Led A.L. in Offensive WAR in ’43 with a mark of 6.5.  A career WAR approaching 70, this infielder deserves his Hall recognition.

When the Veteran’s Committee gets frisky, it’s as ready and willing to please as a Texas high school cheerleader after a Friday night football game.  Thus, Faber, Grimes, Keefe and Manush were elected in one fell swoop.

Faber enjoyed success with the White Sox, winning 20+ games for three straight years in the early ’20′s, twice leading the league in ERA, ERA+, and complete games.  According to Baseball-Reference.com, the pitcher Faber is most closely comparable to is…Burleigh Grimes.  And Burleigh Grimes is close to Eppa Rixey, and Rixey is close to Hoyt, and Hoyt is close to… ah, but you get the point.

As you may have gathered by now, there really isn’t much point arguing that there is some sort of reasonable standard for pitchers as far as the Hall of Fame is concerned.  With a couple of 20-win seasons, and an overall winning record, you have as much chance as the next guy to make it into The Hall.  Timing, and not much else, appears to be everything as far as perceived Hall worthiness is concerned.

Keefe was a great 19th century pitcher with over 300 wins and a WAR above 80.  I’ll take ‘em.

Heinie Manush, like so many players of his generation, hit for a high average (.330) but accumulated a relatively low career WAR (44.1) and a respectable, but not overwhelming OPS+ (121.)  I’ll trade you a Heinie Manush for a Zack Wheat, straight up.

1965 — VC: Pud Galvin

Tossed 72 complete games in 1883.  I’m not making that up.  One of only two 300-game losers in baseball history, the other being Cy Young, whom they named an important award after.  So that’s not a bad thing.  Galvin is an old-time immortal.

1966 — BBWAA: Ted Williams

Obviously, a true immortal.  2,021 walks against just 709 strikeouts.  Career OPS+ 190.  Career On-Base Percentage, .482 is still the best ever.  Missed five seasons to two wars, and still finished with a career WAR of 125.3. Greatest hitter ever.

1967 — BBWAA: Red Ruffing. VC:  Lloyd Waner

Ruffing, like Eppa Rixey before him, pitched for a long time, enjoyed four 20-win and two 20-loss seasons, and was never the best pitcher in his league in any given year.  But a career ERA+ 110 and WAR 53.6 are not generally indicative of greatness.

Lloyd Waner was an even worse choice.  See Lloyd Waner vs. Dale Murphy for more details.

1968 — BBWAA: Joe Medwick. VC: Kiki Cuyler, Goose Goslin

Joe “Ducky” Medwick was an excellent hitting left fielder for the Gas House Gang Cardinals of the 1930′s.  But he peaked by age 27, then began a slow descent into mere competence over the next several years, until finally retiring at age 36 in 1948.  He was the N.L. MVP in 1937.  Career OPS+ 134 is the same as Al Kaline and Paul Waner.  Reasonably good choice.

Please allow me to pay homage to the Book of Genesis for a moment:  Willie Keeler begat Hugh Duffy.  Hugh Duffy begat Earle Combs.  Earle Combs begat Zack Wheat.  Zack Wheat begat Edd Roush.  Edd Roush begat Lloyd Waner.  Lloyd Waner begat KiKi Cuyler.  KiKi Cuyler begat Harry Hooper, and on and on, a thin, sub-royal lineage that persists through generations of Hall voters, up to the present day.

Goose Goslin, one of two geese in the Hall of Fame, is deserving.  Career WAR 63 is pretty close to Al Simmons and Home Run Baker.  It would be wrong to keep him out.

1969 — BBWAA: Roy Campanella, Stan Musial. VC: Stan Coveleski, Waite Hoyt.

According to Brooklyn Dodger pitcher Ralph Branca in “A Moment in Time,” Campanella was always a little jealous of all the press and publicity Robinson received, but they did respect each other as players. Campy won three N.L. MVP awards, and helped lead the Brooklyn Dodgers to their only World Series title in 1955.  One of the top ten catchers in baseball history.  A car accident in 1957 left the 35-year old Campanella crippled for life.

Stan “The Man” Musial was a power hitter who also won an astonishing seven batting titles.  His 6,134 career total bases are second all-time to Hank Aaron.  Musial also won three MVP awards.  A class act and a true immortal.  Interesting to note, however, that he did not reach 500 home runs in his career, a fictitious standard, (along with 300 wins) that Hall voters continue to desperately hang onto as a substitute for actual statistical analysis.

The Veteran’s Committee vouched for Coveleski, and he’s a respectable choice.  Nice career ERA+ 128 is the same as Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson, though he’s not really in their class, of course.

Hoyt, born and raised in Brooklyn, N.Y., pitched for the Yankees, the Giants and a few other teams in his 21-year career, but his claim to fame is that he was considered the ace of the ’27 Yankees pitching staff.  Career ERA+ 112, 237 career wins, two 20-win seasons, and six World Series wins might remind some of Jack Morris.  The comparison is apt.  Neither of them belongs in The Hall of Fame.

So there you have it.  Hall voting in the ’60′s generally mirrors Hall voting in previous decades.

Out of the 25 players inducted into The Hall during this decade, 14 were very good picks, five more were perhaps acceptable, and six were pointless choices.  Therefore, the voters were reasonably successful in around 76% of their choices, which is similar to previous decades.   The mythical Golden Age of the Hall of Fame, then, did not exist in the 1960′s, despite some of the incredible talent inducted during that decade.

Now, because you’ve come this far with me, for your viewing pleasure, click on the youtube link below, and enjoy.

The Baseball Hall of Fame: A Qualitative Analysis, Part 2

In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the first 45 players inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  The purpose of doing so was to determine if it is true, as so many claim, that The Hall was once the exclusive domain of the truly excellent, the best of the best.

After examining all the players inducted into The Hall through 1949, we have to conclude that even in its early years, the BBWAA and the various Old Timers Committees were already arriving at some questionable choices for player inductions into the Hall of Fame.

Fully 38% of the first 45 players chosen can be regarded as specious choices.

Although my analysis is not entirely a matter of sabermetrics, modern measurements like WAR, OPS+ and ERA+ do figure prominently in my evaluations.

Now let’s take a look at the subsequent players elected into The Hall for the years 1951-69.

1951 — BBWAA: Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott

Nine-time All Star, three-time MVP Jimmie Foxx, who came within two homers of matching Ruth’s

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single season record just five years after it was set, received just 9% of the vote in his first year on the ballot in 1936.  A word of caution to the Class of 2012, that’s what a crowded ballot can do.

Ott, like Foxx, topped 500 home runs, thus helping to create the myth that 500 home runs is the standard by which power hitters must be judged to gain entrance into The Hall.

1952 – BBWAA:  Harry Heilmann, Paul Waner

Heilmann, with a pocket full of batting titles and a career OPS+ of 148, received 1.7% of the vote from the BBWAA in 1942.  A decade later, without producing so much as a bunt single in the interim, the same BBWAA gave him 86.8% of the vote.

This Waner brother (Big Poison) actually does belong in The Hall.

1953 — BBWAA: Dizzy Dean, Al Simmons. VC: Chief Bender, Bobby Wallace

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, the dorsal fin of the Veteran’s Committee appears on the horizon.

The Veteran’s Committee absolutely loves light-hitting, slick fielding middle infielders.  Bobby Wallace’s defensive WAR (11.9) is the same as Bill Mazeroski’s, and is very close to Rabbit Maranville’s 11.8 as well as Phil Rizzuto’s 11.0.  Theoretically, this should bode well for Omar Vizquel (13.3) once he becomes eligible.  Undoubtedly, some will argue that a Vizquel induction would seriously erode the high standards of The Hall.  Clearly, as you can see, that would not be the case.

Dean had a great run, but flamed out fast.  He had five great seasons in a row, winning an MVP award along with two second place finishes, and one other good year.  Essentially, he paved the way for Sandy Koufax, and his equally brief run of greatness, to make it into The Hall.

Chief Bender, a Native-American of the Chippewa tribe, pitched for three A’s championship teams in

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the early years of the 20th century.  In his rookie season, 1903, he led the league by plunking 25 hitters in 270 inning pitched.  Don’t mess with the Chippewa.  But his career ERA+, 112, and his WAR, 38.5, are significantly lower than the vast majority of pitchers elected to The Hall up to this point.

1954 — BBWAA: Bill Dickey, Rabbit Maranville, Bill Terry.

Eleven-time All Star Bill Dickey is still among the ten best catchers who ever played the game, so at the time of his induction, few catchers in history had ever been as good as he was.

Rabbit Maranville:  See Bobby Wallace above.

Bill Terry was similar to George Sisler in that he was a slick-fielding first baseman who hit for high averages, but delivered little else of significance between the foul poles.  Won a batting title.  Career Offensive WAR 48.1.  Essentially, he was John Olerud.

1955 — BBWAA: Joe DiMaggio, Gabby Hartnett, Ted Lyons, Dazzy Vance. VC: Home Run Baker, Ray Schalk.

Hard to believe that by 1955, Joltin’ Joe was already eligible for the Hall of Fame.  In his short 13-year career, he finished in the top ten in MVP voting ten times, winning the award three times.  Certainly an obvious choice for The Hall.  Interestingly, his closest modern comparable player (according to Baseball-Reference) eligible for The Hall is Larry Walker.

For seven consecutive seasons, from age 31-37, Dazzy Vance led the N.L. in strikeouts.  I’m of the opinion that this kind of dominance merits Hall membership.

Of the pair of catchers elected, Gabby Hartnett was a solid choice, but Ray Schalk was a poor one.  In fact, Schalk’s election set the bar so low (at least for catchers) that it is possible to make a case that Butch Wynegar deserves to be inducted into The Hall.

Mark McGwire hit 583 home runs.  Home Run Baker hit 96.  They both led their league in home runs four times.  McGwire’s career WAR was 63.1.  Baker’s was 63.7.  This is as good an indication as any of how misleading traditional counting stats (home runs, batting average, RBI, etc.) can be.  Baker does belong in The Hall.

Ted Lyon’s election set the stage for later misfires like Eppa Rixey, Burleigh Grimes, Red Ruffing and Waite Hoyt.

1956 — BBWAA: Joe Cronin, Hank Greenberg.

Two solid choices for the Hall of Fame.

1957 — VC: Sam Crawford

MLB career leader in triples with 309.  Career OPS+ 144.  Career WAR 76.6.  Solid choice.

1959 — VC: Zack Wheat.

Wheat is a marginal HOF’er.  Won a single, empty batting title in 1918 (18 extra base hits.)  OPS+ 129 is the same as Freddy Lynn.  Career WAR 57.8 puts him in Willie Davis territory.

During the 1950′s, then, just 14 of 21 players inducted into the Hall of Fame were high quality choices.  Therefore, about one-third of all the players inducted during this decade were of questionable merit (or worse.)  Thus, out of the first 66 players inducted into The Hall between 1936-59, just 42 were what can be described as high quality choices.  That represents just about 64% of all players chosen up to this point.

This begs the question, so when does this Golden Age of the Hall of Fame actually begin?  Perhaps we’ll have better luck during the 1960′s, the next installment of this series.

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The Baseball Hall of Fame: A Qualitative Analysis, Part 1

Many times over the past couple of weeks I’ve read the following comment regarding a player that someone doesn’t think should be inducted into the Hall of Fame:

 ”If he is elected, it will lower the standards of the Hall of Fame.”

 Or, alternatively, “The Hall used to have very high standards, but they’ve been watered down over the years.”

 I know you’ve heard or read these comments as well.  Perhaps you’ve even uttered them.

I decided to take a look back at HOF elections going all the way back to the first one in 1936 to see if there really was a Golden Age when only the best of the best were inducted, and where the proverbial train went off the rails.  

I didn’t have to search very far.

What follows is Part 1 of a multi-part series analyzing the year-by-year inductees (MLB players only) to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, gratuitous commentary included.  (BBWAA: Elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America; VC: Elected by the Veterans Committee):

1936 — BBWAA: Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner.

So far, so good.  Eleven writers left Ruth off their ballots, perhaps out of concern that his induction would “water down The Hall.”

1937 — BBWAA: Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young

Nice to see Cy Young just barely squeak in with 76% of the vote in his second year on the ballot.

1938 — BBWAA: Grover Cleveland Alexander

Career WAR of 104.9 is fifth best all-time for pitchers.  Poor bastard suffered from epilepsy, shell-shock from WWI, and alcoholism.  But boy, could he pitch.  His 90 career shutouts are still the N.L. record.

1939 — BBWAA: Eddie Collins, Lou Gehrig, Willie Keeler, George Sisler. VC: Cap Anson, Candy Cummings, Buck Ewing, Hoss Radbourn

Keeler was a career .341 hitter, but a career WAR of 60.8 ties him with Buddy Bell for 103rd place among position players.  Not a slam dunk.

Sisler hit over .400 twice, and set single-season hit record (257) later broken by Ichiro.  A.L. MVP 1922.  Yet career OPS+ 124 is the same as Sixto Lezcano and Bobby Bonilla.  Career WAR of 50.4 is just 168th all-time.

Old Hoss Radbourne tossed 678 innings in 1884.  Ouch.

Cummings pitched six years in the 1870′s, and allegedly invented the curveball.  So is 1939 the year the HOF begins to lose its way?  Much worse is on the way.

1942 — BBWAA: Rogers Hornsby.

The only player elected during the five years of the WWII era.  The nation must have been rationing HOF votes along with everything else.

1945 — VC: Roger Bresnahan, Dan Brouthers, Fred Clarke, Jimmy Collins, Ed Delahanty, Hugh Jennings, King Kelly, Jim O’Rourke

Just nine years after The Hall’s initial Mount Rushmore election, the Veteran’s Committee apparently

Image via Wikipedia

got drunk and elected every 19th century Irish ball player they could think of.  Maybe they were celebrating the end of WWII.

Bresnahan invented shin-guards, which is nice, but career WAR of 41.6 is pretty low.  Brouthers and Delahanty definitely belong in The Hall.

Clarke is borderline, as is Jimmy Collins (a great defensive third-sacker.)  Collins accumulated 1,999 hits.  You would think he would have found a way to get just one more hit.

King Kelly was a legend in his own time.  How do you objectively assess a legend?  You don’t.  We simply don’t abide his kind these days.

Hughie Jennings is interesting.  He led his league in WAR four straight seasons (1895-98), which is pretty damned impressive.  He accumulated 35.3 WAR in just those four years.  But that represents fully 76% of his entire career value (46.4).  So, do you prefer a player with a high peak, or a player who plays reasonably well over a long period of time?

Jim O’Rourke is one of my favorite players in The Hall because he hails from my hometown of Bridgeport, CT, and because he was known as Orator Jim.  It was said of him, “Words of great length and thunderous sound simply flowed out of his mouth.”  That is my all-time favorite quote about a ball player.  If there is an orator’s HOF somewhere, he should be in it.  As for the baseball HOF, well, perhaps not.

So by my count, the class of 1945 includes two definite HOF’ers, four borderline inductees, one poor choice, and King Kelly.

1946 — VC: Jesse Burkett, Frank Chance, Jack Chesbro, Johnny Evers, Tommy McCarthy, Joe McGinnity, Eddie Plank, Joe Tinker, Rube Waddell, Ed Walsh.

Tinkers to Evers to Chance wasn’t great poetry, and it wasn’t a great day for The Hall.  Tinker was an excellent defensive shortstop but a poor hitter who doesn’t belong in The Hall.  Evers won the 1914 MVP award, but also doesn’t belong.  Chance was the best hitter of the three, had a short peak, and finished with less than 50 career WAR.

At age 30, in 1904, Jack Chesbro started 51 games for the N.Y. Highlanders, won a Major League record 41 of them, pitched 454 innings, and posted a WAR of 8.8.  Also reached 20 wins four other times.  But he won fewer than 200 games in his career, and his career WAR is less than 40.  If he is in on the strength of one huge season and a few good ones, then a case can be made that Roger Maris also belongs in The Hall.

Jesse Burkett, one of the great hitters of the late 19th-early 20th centuries, belongs in The Hall, as does Gettysburg Eddie (326 wins) Plank.

Though he pitched just seven full seasons, Fordham University’s Ed Walsh won 40 games for the ’08 White Sox, and his career ERA of 1.82 is the lowest in MLB history.  So you gotta give him a nudge into The Hall as well.  Rube Waddell was one of the strangest, and one of the greatest, pitchers of all-time.  He led the A.L. in strikeouts six consecutive years, but would go chase a passing fire truck in the middle of a game.

Iron Joe McGinnity completed 314 of his 381 starts, topping 300 innings pitched in the first nine of his ten Major League seasons.  Led N.L. in wins five times.  Topped 400 innings pitched twice.  Back-to-back seasons of over 10.0 WAR.  He’s O.K. by me.

Outfielder Tommy McCarthy must have slipped into the Hall of Fame when no one was looking.  There is no other way to account for his inclusion.

By my count, that makes five solid HOF’ers inducted in ’46 out of a group of ten players.

1947 — BBWAA: Mickey Cochrane, Frankie Frisch, Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell.

With the Old-Timers Gang out of town, the BBWAA reasserts itself with some classy picks.

1948 — BBWAA: Herb Pennock, Pie Traynor.

Pennock was a very poor choice; a case can be made that Pie Traynor belongs in the HOF, but not a very strong one.

1949 — BBWAA: Charlie Gehringer. VC: Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown, Kid Nichols.

Each of these three are fine choices.  Gehringer was one of the all-time great second basemen.  Brown and Nichols were among the very best pitchers in their respective eras.

Of the first 45 players elected to the Hall of Fame up to this point, approximately 28 were excellent choices, six were poor choices, and the other 11 were borderline or questionable picks.  That means fully 38% if the picks were not of the highest quality.

That brings us up to the 1950′s, which I will tackle in Part 2 of this series.  As you shall see, the questionable inductees continue unabated.

Image via Wikipedia

• Dear BBWAA: please lower your Hall of Fame voting standards (hardballtalk.nbcsports.com)
• Murray Chass’s Hall Of Fame Vote Is Based Partly On His Dinner Plans [Baseball Hall Of Fame] (deadspin.com)

2012 Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Analysis

Let’s try to sift through the wreckage of the 2012 BBWAA Hall of Fame vote, and

attempt to reconstruct the debacle.  Maybe we’ll find a black box or something.

1)  Reds shortstop Barry Larkin received 86.4% of the vote, easily exceeding the 75% he needed for induction into the Hall of Fame.  One of the top ten shortstops of all time, he is a worthy addition to the Hall of Fame.

2)  Jack Morris received 66.7% of the vote.  He has a couple of years left on the ballot, and stands a good shot at getting elected before his time is up.  His career WAR was 39.3, the second lowest among the 14 players on the ballot who survived the cut.  Morris received 382 votes.  Brad Radke, career WAR 40.9, received just two votes and fell off the ballot.  Morris had a mustache.  Radke didn’t.  BBWAA voters like men with mustaches.  They think it makes them look tough, you know, like a Hall of Famer should.

3)  Forty-four percent of the American public believes that the world is less than 10,000 years old.  This is the same percentage as BBWAA voters who left Jeff Bagwell’s name off of their HOF ballots.  One has to wonder if they are, in fact, the same people.

4)  Lee Smith, a relief pitcher who specialized in taking naps before his 9th inning cameos, received 50.6% of the vote.  Apparently, this means that about half of the voters believe the save is a crap statistic, and they are correct.

5)  Tim Raines got 48.7% of the vote.  What’s interesting here is that no one mentions anymore that Raines was part of a cocaine scandal that rocked baseball back in the 1980′s.  It was a very big deal at the time.  Yet Raines now has a real chance of someday getting into the HOF.  What are we to make, then, of all the hullabaloo surrounding the PED scandal of recent times?  My guess is that it’ll ultimately go the way of all American scandals, including Watergate, the Iran-Contra affair, etc.  The public doesn’t so much forgive.  It simply forgets.

6)  Alan Trammell:  Sometimes I think HOF voters are just kind of lazy.  Why bother taking a look at a guy like Trammell’s numbers year after year?  He just didn’t, you know, feel like a Hall of Famer when he was playing.  Yet his career WAR (66.9) is better than Ozzie Smith, PeeWee Reese, Luis Aparicio, and Ernie Banks, not to mention Phil Rizzuto and Rabbit Maranville.  In fact, Trammell’s career WAR is only slightly below Barry Larkin’s 68.9.  I’m not saying that Trammell was as good as Larkin, but he is clearly legit Hall material.  So why did he receive just 36.8% of the vote?  Ask the voters.

7)  The Designated Hitter rule came into being in the American League in 1973, the same year that Tony Orlando and Dawn dominated the singles charts with “Tie a Yellow Ribbon ‘Round the Old Oak Tree.”  While Tony Orlando and Dawn are long since gone, the D.H. remains, a relic of the age of Nixon.  The bastard child of Commissioner Bowie Kuhn and A.L. President Joe Cronin, it remains with us today, an oddity largely rejected by the BBWAA, who gave Edgar Martinez, the greatest D.H. ever, just 36.5% of the vote.

8)  Fred “Crime Dog” McGriff received just 23.9% of the vote.  If he’d hit just seven more career home runs, he would probably have doubled that vote total.  Writers look at their hands a lot, and the BBWAA writers noticed that they have ten fingers, so they can only think in terms of numbers divisible by ten.  493 (home runs) is not divisible by ten.  500 home runs would be.  Thus the low vote totals for Crime Dog.

9)  Larry Walker (22.9%) played during an era where we were all buried in an avalanche of three-run home runs and 14-10 ball games.  For a while, he called Coors Field home.  Coors Field was to the baseball fan what the Best Little Whorehouse in Texas would be to a group of college under-grads, the ultimate venue to enjoy a bacchanal of pure lust and carnal pleasure.  Larry Walker is being penalized for having been in the wrong place at the wrong time, and nothing’s going to change that.

10)  Mark McGwire (19.5%) – The ultimate example of how our culture is like a pair of tectonic plates crashing into each other, causing massive earthquakes and unending destruction.  We wanted massive biceps, towering home runs, Ruthian records, immortal legends.  We got all of that.  We also wanted Scouts Honor, drug-tested teachers, lock ‘em up law and order, and family values.  We got some of that, too.  But the natural tension between the two caused a fissure to develop into which  McGwire’s reputation dropped, wordlessly and without a murmur from a society that demanded his creation, and his demise.

Four other players, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmiero, and Bernie Williams all received enough votes to remain on the ballot to fight another day.  Thirteen other players dropped off the ballot.  One of those players, Bill Mueller, actually received four votes for the Hall of Fame.  Every society has a subculture, and every subculture has a lunatic fringe.  Baseball is our little subculture, and, apparently, Bill Mueller voters are our lunatic fringe.

That’s as far as I care to go with this.  Let me know your thoughts about today’s voting results.

Best Regards, Bill Miller

Image via Wikipedia

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Why Bernie Williams Does Not Belong in the Hall of Fame

Image via Wikipedia

I really hate to do this to Bernie Williams. Although I’m not a Yankee fan, I did happen to like and respect Williams during his tenure with the Yanks.  He always seemed to me to be a man of dignity and  self-respect.  There really wasn’t any reason not to like Bernie Williams.

As a player, along with Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada, Williams was an important part of the Yankee Championship teams during his era.  A five-time All Star, Williams was a player that any manager would love to have on his team.

Having said all that, Bernie Williams does not belong in the Hall of Fame.

Recently, I read an essay by Jim Caple of ESPN arguing that Williams should be elected into The Hall.  I further indulged myself by skimming through the reader responses to Caple’s analysis.  The majority of readers responded in the negative as far as Williams’ Hall worthiness was concerned, but there were several responses  to the effect that Williams is an obvious, slam-dunk Hall of Famer.

I decided to analyze their primary arguments as to why they believe Williams should be elected into the Hall of Fame.  It appears to me that Bernie’s advocates supply three major reasons why they think Williams belongs in The Hall.  Let’s take each reason, one at a time, and examine them more closely.

1)  Bernie Williams compiled excellent career play-off numbers: 

It is certainly true that Williams is among the all-time play-off leaders in games played, plate appearances, at bats, hits, runs scored, doubles, walks, home runs, and RBI.  But the primary reason why Williams is generally in the top three in each of these categories is because he played on a lot of excellent Yankee teams, and because there are simply more playoff series now than there were in prior generations.

Bernie Williams was fortunate to play on teams that allowed him to receive 545 plate appearances in playoff games.  That is essentially one regular season’s worth of plate appearances.  Williams triple slash line during the regular season in his career was ..297 / .381 / .477.  His playoff game triple slash line was .275 / .371 / .480.  Overall, not a lot of difference, other than a drop in batting average.

These numbers are about what one would expect considering a generally higher level of competition in playoff games.  Still, is there anything outstanding about that playoff triple slash line?  Williams was the 1996 A.L. ALCS MVP.  Per at bat, Williams numbers are good, but they are not outstanding.

2)  Bernie Williams was a great defensive center fielder:

Bernie Williams won four Gold Gloves, from 1997-2000, during which he accumulated a WAR of -4.1.  Yes folks, that’s a negative sign in front of the 4.  Very early on his Williams career as a full-time center fielder, beginning in 1993, Williams was a half-way decent outfielder.  He was young and quick, and he even accumulated a couple of seasons of positive WAR.

But the fact remains that Williams, who finished his career with a defensive WAR of -12.0, was, by any objective standard of measurement, a below average center fielder who happened to somehow impress Gold Glove voters into making them believe that he was, in fact, a very good outfielder.

It happens.  There are some Gold Glove winners (Keith Hernandez, Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith) who really do deserve the award virtually every season they earn it.  There are others, like Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Rafael Palmiero, who earn them despite the fact that their skills eroded more quickly than people noticed.

My theory about this is that fans, managers, baseball announcers, and other  judge a player’s defense by entirely subjective criteria, like how graceful a player looks while playing his position.  Or how dirty his shirt is at the end of a game.  Yet, looks can be deceiving.  Sometimes a player has a dirty shirt because he is slow-footed and often out of position.  Or perhaps he looks as graceful as Nureyev  running across the wide expanse of the outfield, yet a disproportionate number of balls land just out of reach for inning-extending base hits.

Regardless of how well Williams appeared to play the outfield, the fact of the matter is, relatively speaking, he just wasn’t very good at it.

3)  Bernie Williams was an excellent switch-hitter who won a batting title and accumulated impressive career numbers.

Williams did win the A.L. batting title by hitting .339 in 1998.  Perhaps as a result, he also led the A.L. in intentional walks received in 1999, with 17.

Other than that, in Williams entire 16-year career, he never led the A.L. in any other category even once.  Not in at bats, hits, runs scored, doubles, home runs, RBI, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, or WAR.

Williams finished his career with 2,336 hits, 1,366 runs scored (95th all-time), 449 doubles (96th all-time), 287 home runs, 1,257 RBI, 147 stolen bases, just over 1,000 walks, and the aforementioned triple slash line of .297 / .381 / .477.  His OPS was .858, and his OPS+ was 125.  His career WAR was 47.3.

There is nothing wrong with any of those numbers.  They are very solid, respectable numbers.  But here’s the problem with these numbers.  If you induct Williams into The Hall with those numbers, then you better be ready to punch the ticket for Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans, Will Clark, Ted Simmons, Bobby Grich, Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, and a cast of dozens of other players whose career numbers are right there with Williams.

Finally, it is also reasonable to expect that a Hall of Fame caliber player should have dominated the game to the extent that his dominance was rewarded with an MVP award or a Cy Young award or, at the very least, multiple finishes in the top five or top ten in voting for those awards.

Williams best finish in MVP voting was just 7th place in 1998.  He also finished in 10th place in 2002.

Bernie Williams was an excellent baseball player and a class Yankee who deserves to be recognized for his accomplishments in Monument Park in Yankee Stadium.

But Bernie Williams does not deserve to be elected into the baseball Hall of Fame.

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Baseball Bloggers Alliance Hall of Fame Voting: 2012 Edition

January 3, 2012
	BBA RECOMMENDS LARKIN, BAGWELL FOR HALL OF FAME In the annual polling of members of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, former Cincinnati Reds shortstop Barry Larkin and former Houston Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell were recommended for induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame.  This is the third year the organization has conducted this survey of the membership. Larkin, a 12-time All-Star who fashioned an .815 OPS over 19 seasons, received the largest percentage of votes, being named on 84.25% of the 148 ballots cast.  This is the highest percentage garnered by any player in the three years of BBA voting. Bagwell, who hit 449 HR and had a .948 OPS in his 15 seasons in Houston, was selected on 115 ballots for a 78.77% rate.  As with the official voting done by the Baseball Writers of America, a player must be named on 75% of the ballots to be recommended by the alliance. Last year, the BBA recommended second baseman Roberto Alomar and pitcher Bert Blyleven, both of whom were inducted into Cooperstown during the summer.  In 2010, no player reached the 75% mark in BBA balloting, the year that outfielder Andre Dawson was selected for the Hall by the baseball writers. The Baseball Bloggers Alliance’s vote has no impact on the official vote taken by the Baseball Writers of America.  However, the BBA has often been a predictor of major awards granted by the writers. The final voting results are as follows: Barry Larkin 84.25% Jeff Bagwell 78.77% Edgar Martinez 60.27% Tim Raines 57.53% Alan Trammell 44.52% Mark McGwire 41.10% Larry Walker 35.62% Lee Smith 33.56% Jack Morris 32.19% Don Mattingly 29.45% Rafael Palmerio 28.77% Fred McGriff 28.08% Dale Murphy 16.44% Bernie Williams 11.64% Juan Gonzalez 6.16% Javy Lopez 2.74% Brad Radke 2.05% Tim Salmon 1.37% Bill Mueller 0.68% Phil Nevin 0.68% Ruben Sierra 0.68% Tony Womack 0.68% Jeromy Burnitz 0.00% Vinny Castilla 0.00% Brian Jordan 0.00% Terry Mulholland 0.00% Eric Young 0.00% The Baseball Bloggers Alliance was established in the fall of 2009 for the purpose of fostering collaboration and communication among bloggers from across baseball.  The BBA has quickly grown to its current membership of 347 blogs, including some of the most prominent blogs on the Internet, spanning all major league teams and various other general aspects of the game. More information about the BBA can be found at their website, baseballbloggersalliance.wordpress.com, or by contacting the founder and administrator of the organization, Daniel Shoptaw, at founder@baseballbloggersalliance.com. Image via Wikipedia

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Cleaning Up the Hall of Fame: Herb Pennock vs. Ron Guidry

In this, the fourth installment of this series, I propose replacing one Yankee (of questionable merit) in the Hall of Fame with another, better choice.  If it seems to you that this series is a bit top-heavy with Yankees up to this point, it’s probably because there are so many of them in The Hall in the first place.

Image by Willie Zhang via Flickr

Perhaps more surprisingly, there are other Yankees who are not in The Hall, but who have a better case for being enshrined there than several players, Yankee and non-Yankee alike, who currently enjoy a spot in the Hall of Fame Plaque Room.

When most people think of the 1927 Yankees, they think of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Tony Lazzeri, and perhaps outfielders Earle Combs and Bob Meusel.  Pitcher Waite Hoyt might also come to mind among serious baseball fans.

Herb Pennock?  Well, perhaps there are a few hardcore fans around who could toss that name at you, too.

Pennock was a good pitcher on a very good team, perhaps the best team in history.  Actually, Pennock (The Knight of Kennett Square), a Pennsylvania boy, first came up with the Philadelphia A’s in 1912.  By 1915 he had joined the Red Sox and enjoyed some success there until 1923, when the Sox sent him to the Yankees.  (Pennock did not play a major role in either of the Red Sox World Championship teams in 1915-16.)

Pennock, just hitting his stride now at age 29, was immediately successful pitching for New York’s American League team.  In his first season, he won 19 games and led the A.L. in winning percentage at .760.  In his next five seasons, he won 21, 16, 23, 19 and 17 games for the mighty Yankees.

Over the course of those half-dozen years, the best years of his career, Pennock led the league in winning percentage once, shutouts once, innings pitched once, and WHIP twice.  He also walked the fewest batters per nine innings three times.

Only once during those years did Pennock reach 100 strikeouts in a season.  He also never actually led the league in wins, either.  He did, however, finish 3rd in A.L. MVP voting in 1926 and 4th in 1924, so his contributions to those great Yankee teams did not go unnoticed.

Pennock pitched until age 40 when he retired after a short, one-year stint back in Boston.  He had pitched for the Yankees for eleven years, winning a total of 162 games while losing just 90.  Overall in his career, Pennock posted a record of 241-162, meaning he lost as many games in his entire two-decade career as he’d won pitching about half as long with the Yanks.

Although Pennock’s career win-loss record is very good, and he was an important part of the Yankees rotation during those years, Pennock was a questionable choice for election into the Hall of Fame in 1948.  His career WAR of 36.9 is the same as no-one’s-idea-of-a-Hall of Famer, Burt Hooton.

Pennock’s career ERA of 3.60 is pretty decent for the high scoring era in which he pitched the majority of his career, but his career ERA+ of 106 gives us a pretty good indication that he was, in reality just a bit better, all things considered, than the average pitcher in his day.

There’s nothing wrong with being a good player on a great team.  That, and a lot of durability are one of the quickest and surest paths into the Hall of Fame.

But then there’s true greatness which, even if it burns brightly for just a short time, blinds us with its brilliance.

Such was the career of Ron (Louisiana Lightning) Guidry.  Like Pennock, Guidry enjoyed his glory days with the Yankees.  Also like Pennock, Guidry was a lefty.  Unlike Pennock, though, and to quote Bruce Springsteen, “He could throw that speed-ball by you, make you look like a fool, boy.”

Guidry got a bit of a late start in Major League baseball, not landing a regular gig until he was already 26-years old in 1977.  But he was an immediate success, posting a 16-7 record with a 2.82 ERA, and an ERA+ of 140.  In the World Series, Guidry defeated the Dodgers in Game 4, pitching a complete game, 4-2 victory.

In 1978, however, Ron Guidry produced one of the greatest seasons by any pitcher in baseball history.

Guidry started 35 games, won 25 of them, lost only three times, and posted a ridiculous ERA of 1.74.  His ERA+ was an off-the-charts 208.  He also led the league in WHIP 0.946 and in shut-outs with nine.  He threw 16 complete games and struck out 248 batters in 273 innings pitched.  Guidry won the A.L. Cy Young award and finished second in MVP voting.

In the World Series, Guidry again pitched a complete game victory, this time over Dodger ace Don Sutton, 5-1.

The following season, Guidry led the A.L. in ERA (2.78), topped 200 strikeouts again, and posted an 18-8 record while finishing third in the Cy Young award voting.

Guidry would continue to have several productive seasons with New York, finishing in the top ten in Cy Young voting in 1981, 1983, and 1985.  In his ten full seasons as a starting pitcher, Guidry would finish in at least the top seven in Cy Young voting six times.

Also recognized as one of the best fielding pitchers of his era, Guidry won five Gold Glove awards.  He also pitched in four All-Star games.

Guidry ended his career in 1988 at the age of 37.

Although many argue that his lack of durability has hurt his chances a great deal as far as earning entry into the Hall of Fame is concerned, it might be useful to consider that Guidry topped at least 190 innings in a season nine times, and over 200 seven times.  Hall of Famers Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax, by contrast, each topped 200 innings in a season just five times during their respective careers.

Koufax and Guidry each topped 2,300 innings pitched, while Dean hurled just over 1,900.  Guidry and Dean each led their league in wins twice, while Koufax led his league in wins three times.  Koufax’ career win-loss percentage was .655, Guidry’s was .651, Dean’s .644.

Dean and Koufax both top Guidry in career ERA+ at 131 each, while Guidry scores a still very nice 119.   Guidry accumulated 170 wins to Koufax’ 165 and Dean’s 150.  Koufax tops the three in career WAR (54.5) to Guidry (44.4) and Dean (39.6).

The point here isn’t that Guidry was as good as Koufax, because he wasn’t.  When compared to Dizzy Dean, Guidry holds up very well.  The primary point here, though, is that we are not comparing Guidry to Pennock, because Guidry is quite obviously better than Pennock.

All of which is another way of saying that, regarding Pennock and Guidry,  The Hall clearly has the wrong Yankee lefty enshrined at Cooperstown.

Image by The Library of Congress via Flickr

Baseball Players We Lost in 2011

The following information comes from an email from a friend of mine, Jim Copeland.  All credit goes to him.  I can’t vouch for the accuracy of all that is contained herein, but Jim usually knows what he is talking about. 

Matty Alou, 72: The smallest (5-foot-9) of the Alou Brothers swung the biggest bat, both literally (a 36-ounce model that seemed to outweigh him) and statistically (he won the National League batting title in 1966 by hitting .342 and retired as a career .307 hitter). Nov. 3, Miami, diabetes. 

Gino Cimoli, 81: The NL All-Star outfielder with the 1957 Brooklyn Dodgers batted .265 across a 10-year career with seven different clubs. Feb. 12, Roseville, Calif., kidney and heart failure.

Wes Covington, 79: With 54 home runs, he was a junior member — the seniors being Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews — of the Milwaukee Braves’ back-to-back World Series teams of 1957-58. July 4, Edmonton, cancer.

 Ryne Duren, 81: His thick glasses intimidated hitters and his blazing fastball put them away. The inspiration for cinema’s Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn topped the Majors with an inconceivable 20 saves in 1958, when he fanned 87 in 75 2/3 innings for the Yankees — the first of six consecutive seasons in which his strikeouts exceeded his innings. Jan. 6, Lake Wales, Fla.

Mike Flanagan, 59: He helped pitch the Orioles into two World Series (1979 and ’83), winning the AL Cy Young Award on the way in ’79, but wasn’t able to achieve as much success as the team’s general manager. Aug. 24, Monkton, Md., suicide.

Bob Forsch, 61: His ceremonial opening toss prior to World Series Game 7 was merely the last of thousands of clutch pitches by the only pitcher to throw multiple no-hitters (1978 and ’83) for the storied Cardinals franchise. Ken Forsch’s ”little brother” also helped pitch St. Louis into the World Series in 1982, ’85 and ’87. Nov. 3, Weeki Wachee, Fla., thoracic aortic aneurysm.

 Joe Frazier, 88: Baseball, too, lost a Smokin’ Joe, the one-time infielder whose 207-game run as Mets manager ended two months into the 1977 season, with his replacement being Joe Torre. Feb. 15, Broken Arrow, Okla., heart attack.

 Woodie Fryman, 70: The ole Tobacco Farmer from Kentucky didn’t break into the Majors until he was 26, and the lefty won 141 games in an 18-year career through 1983. Feb. 4, Lexington, Ky., heart ailment.

Lou Gorman, 84: The 2002 inductee into the Red Sox Hall of Fame spent more than three decades in baseball operations, a career highlighted by stints as general manager in Seattle and Boston. April 1, Weston, Mass., natural causes.

Greg Halman, 24: He smiled, he joked, he excited with anticipation all of his native Netherlands. He was fresh off his most significant stretch of Major League action and was set to invite Seattle’s love in 2012. He was abruptly, inexplicably taken from us. Nov. 21, Rotterdam, knife stabbing.

Roy Hartsfield, 85: He was the charter manager of Toronto, guiding the Blue Jays through their first three seasons (1977-79), a just reward for a long stint as a successful Minor League skipper. Jan. 15, Atlanta, liver cancer.

 Hideki Irabu, 42: The right-hander helped blaze Japanese players’ trail to the Majors, going 29-20 with the 1997-99 Yankees before his career wound down in disappointment. July 27, Los Angeles, suicide.

Eddie Joost, 94: The smooth-fielding infielder was one of the last remaining links to the fabled Philadelphia A’s, with whom he became a two-time (1949, ’52) All-Star, then the team’s last manager before its move to Kansas City. April 12, Fair Oaks, Calif.

Harmon Killebrew, 74: The Hammer struck for 573 homers across a 22-season Hall of Fame career, playing all but 106 of his 2,435 games as the revered and beloved face of the Washington-Minnesota franchise. May 17, Scottsdale, Ariz., esophageal cancer.

 Charlie Lea, 54: The France-born righty went 43-31 for the Expos from 1982-84, but he left his most permanent mark with his May 10, 1981 no-hitter against San Francisco. He was a long-time member of the broadcast crew for the Memphis Redbirds. Nov. 11, Collierville, Tenn., heart attack.

Marty Marion, 94: He fielded shortstop as no one with two arms had any business, thus was known as The Octopus as the centerpiece of the Cardinals’ World Series championship teams of 1942, ’44 and ’46. March 16, Ladue, Mo., natural causes.

Charlie Metro, 92: He dabbled both in outfield play and managing before becoming one of the true scouting legends of the game, primarily for the Dodgers. March 18, Buckingham, Va., lung cancer.

Jim Northrup, 71: As the starting right fielder on the 1968 Tigers that united Detroit at a time of deep social divide, the lefty hitter belted 21 homers and drove in 90 runs, the high note of a 12-year career. June 8, Grand Blanc, Mich., seizure.

Jose Pagan, 76: Versatile and affable, the Puerto Rican crowned a 15-year career by playing a vital role on the 1971 World Series champion Pirates, for whom he started at four different positions. June 7, Sebring, Fla., Alzheimer’s disease.

Mitchell Page, 59: A third-round Draft pick in 1973 by the Pirates dealt to Oakland as part of a nine-player blockbuster in March of ’77, he broke in with the ’77 A’s as the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up — to Hall of Famer Eddie Murray — hitting .307 with 21 homers and 75 RBIs. March 12, Glendale, Ariz., in his sleep.

Duane Pillette, 88: The big right-hander earned two unique spots in baseball lore, starting the St. Louis Browns’ final game and earning the Orioles’ first victory after the franchise’s 1954 shift to Baltimore. May 8, San Jose, Calif., heart failure.

Mel Queen, 69: As a left-handed hitter and right-handed thrower, he had a brief but unique career with the Reds as on outfielder/pitcher prior to a conversion to full-time pitching in 1967. Then as a pitching coach/advisor, he tutored three Toronto pitchers to Cy Young Awards — Pat Hentgen, Roger Clemens (twice) and Roy Halladay. May 13, Morro Bay, Calif., cancer.

Bob Rush, 85: Mr. Cub of the mound during the outset of Ernie Banks’ wider reign, the big right-hander was an eight-time double-figures winner for the perennial cellar-dwellers of the ’50s, including a 17-13 mark with a 2.70 ERA in 1952. March 19, Mesa, Ariz.

Larry Shepard, 92: He never got to do it in the Majors, but he sure knew a lot about pitching, winning 179 games during a 13-season Minor League career then steering the Big Red Machine pitchers as Cincinnati’s pitching coach. He also served as Pirates manager for two seasons between Danny Murtaugh stints. April 6, Lincoln, Neb., natural causes.

Dave Sisler, 79: The bespectacled pitching branch of the famed Sisler clan (Hall of Fame father George was a career .340 hitter and brother Dick a two-time All-Star) posted 38 wins from 1956-62 in his career as a reliever and spot-starter. Jan. 9, St. Louis, prostate cancer.

Roy Smalley, 85: A cornerstone of one of baseball’s leading families — brother-in-law of Gene Mauch and father of Roy Smalley III — he was the Cubs shortstop replaced by Ernie Banks, making him Wally Pipp to Mr. Cub’s Lou Gehrig. Oct. 12, Sahuarita, Ariz.

Duke Snider, 84: The Duke of Flatbush — and of Chavez Revine — hit nearly .300 and struck 407 homers, mostly for the Dodgers during a Hall of Fame career that spanned 18 seasons and both coasts. Feb. 27, Escondido, Calif., diabetes.

Paul Splittorff, 64: A 1987 inductee into the Royals Hall of Fame, the left-hander had 129 wins from 1974-80 for Kansas City’s AL West dynasty, and he remained vital on the scene as the team’s TV analyst. May 25, Blue Springs, Md., oral cancer.

 Chuck Tanner, 82: The onetime nondescript utility outfielder enjoyed an uninterrupted 19-season run as a manager with four teams, most gloriously the “We Are Family” Pirates, whom he guided to the 1979 World Series championship. Feb. 11, New Castle, Pa., following a long illness.

Dick Williams, 82: He was hard-nosed as a vagabond utility player during a 13-season playing career, even harder-nosed as a Hall of Fame manager who won pennants with three different teams (Boston, Oakland, San Diego) and two World Series with the A’s. July 7, Las Vegas, brain aneurysm.

Gus Zernial, 87: Oh, how Ozark Ike could swing the big lumber, especially from 1950-53, a four-season span during which he totaled 133 homers and 430 RBIs for two teams (White Sox and Philadelphia A’s). Jan. 20, Fresno, Calif., heart disease.

Two suicides and a murder.  Let’s hope 2012 is less tragic than 2011. 

And to those of you who have been taking the time to read this blog, thank you, and have a Happy New Year. 

Bill

The Best Losing Pitchers of All-Time

Most pitchers who lost more games than they won in their careers did so because they just weren’t very good pitchers.  In fact, they were often just plain awful.  But there is an unusual subset of pitchers who were actually pretty good at their craft who still ended up with more losses than wins.  It may seem counter-intuitive, but it is true.  Some pitchers are just unlucky.

The original idea for this post came from my last post when I was examining the career of Jon Matlack. Matlack pitched 2,363 innings in his career, winning the N.L. Rookie of the Year award in 1972.  He retired with a career ERA of 3.18, an ERA+ of 114, and a career WAR of 38.7.

Overall, these are numbers that for most pitchers would normally have resulted in a winning record. Yet Matlack completed his career with a record of 125-126.  Although his peripheral numbers all indicate that he was a good pitcher, he still ended up with a losing record.

That got me to thinking about how many other pitchers there might have been in baseball history who pitched well at least as often as not, but never received their fair share of wins.

Before I started my research, I had to set some arbitrary ground-rules.  I decided that to make my list, a pitcher had to have at least 100 wins, 1,500 innings pitched,  at least 200 career starts, and he had to have a career ERA below 4.00.

My research has turned up (and I’ve probably missed some), several intriguing examples of “good” pitchers who retired with losing records.

Here are some examples of these pitchers, in no particular order, with a brief synopsis of their career highlights.

1)  Pat Dobson:  In 1971, Dobson posted a record of 20-8 with an ERA of 2.90 in 282 innings.  He hurled 18 complete games for the Orioles, and finished the season in the A.L. top 20 in MVP voting.  His ERA+ was 116.  The following season, Dobson led the A.L. in losses with a record of 16-18, despite an ERA of 2.65 and an ERA+ of 117.

Dobson would also go on to win 19 games with the ’74 Yankees, and in his seven seasons in which he tossed over 200 innings, he posted an ERA over 4.00 just twice.  He finished with a respectable career ERA of 3.54 in 2,120 innings.  Despite all of these positives, Dobson finished his career with a record of 122-129.

2)  Mark Gubicza:  Gubicza was a two-time All Star who enjoyed a Dobson-like 20-8 season with a 2.70 ERA in 35 starts with the Royals.  Although Gubicza had some trouble staying healthy in his 13 seasons with the Royals (1984-96), he did lead the A.L. in starts twice.

Gubicza also surrendered the fewest home runs per nine innings three times, and fewest walks per nine once.  In 2,223 innings pitched in his career, he posted a career ERA+ of 109, and a career WAR of 34.8, better than Hall of Famers Catfish Hunter and Rube Marquard.  He was, in most seasons, better than the average pitcher, yet accumulated more losses than wins.

3)  Bill Singer:  Twice in his career, in 1969 with the Dodgers and 1973 with the Angels, Singer won exactly 20 games.  In each of those two seasons, he also made exactly 40 starts, pitched exactly 315.2 innings, and hurled exactly two shutouts.  Also, in both seasons, he topped 240 strikeouts.  Strangely, he walked just 74 batters in ’69, then walked 130 in ’73.  Apparently, Nolan Ryan must have rubbed off on him.

Singer was an erratic pitcher, but, as you can see, he was quite dominant in his prime.  In 308 career starts, he tossed 2,174 innings, and his career ERA was a respectable 3.39.  It was a surprise to me, then, when I saw that Singer had finished his career with a record of 118-127.  He deserved better.

4)  Bob Friend:  Friend’s career is probably the most extreme example of this group of an excellent pitcher who got saddled with more wins than losses.  His 197 career wins are, by far, the most of any pitcher I could find who finished his career with a losing record (197-230.)  But his career win-loss percentage (.461) is actually one of the worst I could find among the players in his group.

Friend led the N.L. in wins with 22 in 1958.  Then he went on to lead the league in losses with 19 in 1959.  In 1960, he bounced back with 18 victories, then proceeded to lead the league in losses the following year once again with 19.

Friend led the league in games started three times, in innings pitched twice, in batters faced twice, and in ERA and ERA+ once each.  He pitched 200 innings every season from 1955 to 1965 for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Friend’s career WAR of 48.9 is better than several pitchers in the Hall of Fame.

Friend, a four-time All Star, made 497 starts in his career, pitched in over 3,600 innings, and logged a career ERA of 3.58.  If he had pitched on better teams than the often dismal Pirates, he might have reversed his career record, and perhaps even some consideration for the Hall of Fame.

5)  Randy Jones:  Randy Jones won the 1976 N.L. Cy Young award for the Padres with a record of 22-14, led the league in starts (40) complete games (an astonishing 25), innings pitched (315) and WHIP (1.027).  Although he hardly ever walked anyone, it is also amazing that he struck out just 93 batters all season.

The previous year, Jones finished as the runner-up in the Cy Young voting to Tom Seaver.  Jones actually topped Seaver in ERA (2.24) and ERA+ (156) while posting a nice 20-12 record.  Interestingly, the season before these two consecutive excellent years, 1974, Jones led the N.L. in losses as he was saddled with a record of 8-22.

But Jones’ career went downhill rapidly from that point, his last semi-effective season coming in 1979.  Jones finished his career, spent almost entirely with San Diego, with a career record of 100-122, and an ERA of 3.42.  As far as I can tell, Jones is the only Cy Young award winner (among starting pitchers, and using the criteria I listed above) who finished his career with more losses than wins.

Now here are the rest of the pitchers who meet my standards, listed alphabetically, with their respective win-loss records, and their career ERA’s:

6) Jim Barr:  101-112, 3.56

7) Tom Candiotti:  151-164, 3.73

8) Dick Ellsworth:  115-137, 3.72

9)Woodie Fryman:  141-155, 3.77

10) Bob Knepper:  146-155, 3.68

11)  Jon Matlack – 125-126, 3.18

12) Rudy May:  152-156, 3.46

13) Fritz Ostermueller:  114-115, 3.99

14) Steve Renko:  134-146, 3.99

15) Jim Rooker:  103-109, 3.46

16) Zane Smith:  100-115, 3.74

17) Clyde Wright:  100-111, 3.50

A few other pitchers I looked at just missed making this list.  Danny Jackson, for example, had a career record of 112-131, but his career ERA was 4.01.  Nap Rucker finished his career with a perfectly mediocre record of 134-134, so he missed making this list by one loss.

Now, of the seventeen pitchers listed above, which ones were the best?

Let’s begin by eliminating all of those pitchers with a career ERA+ under 100.  Well, there goes Bill Singer (99), Bob Knepper (95), Woodie Fryman (96), Steve Renko (98) and Clyde Wright (96).

Now we are down to just twelve pitchers.  Using career WAR as a litmus test, let’s eliminate any pitcher on this list with a career WAR below 20.  Say goodbye to Pat Dobson (17.6), Randy Jones (19.7), Rudy May (19.6), and Jim Rooker (16.7).

We have eight pitchers remaining.  Let’s raise the bar a bit more to reward pitchers who pitched at least 2,000 innings.  That eliminates Zane Smith.  Let’s also knock off the lowest remaining ERA+, Dick Ellsworth (100).

Our six remaining pitchers are:  Jon Matlack, Mark Gubicza, Jim Barr, Tom Candiotti, Bob Friend, and Fritz Ostermueller.

Now let’s list our remaining six in order of career WAR, highest to lowest:

1)  Bob Friend – 48.9

2) Tom Candiotti – 41.0

3)  Jon Matlack – 38.7

4)  Mark Gubicza – 34.8

5)  Jim Barr – 30.5

6)  Fritz Ostermueller – 27.6

Eliminating Ostermueller, who has both the lowest WAR and the highest ERA (3.99), we have a nice little five-man rotation of Friend, Candiotti, Matlack, Gubicza and Barr.

The Black Ink test used by Baseball-Reference.com, that is, the categories in which a player led his league, highlighted in bold print, is still another way to measure a particular player’s value.

Using the Black Ink test, Bob Friend wins by a wide margin.  He scores a 20,  Matlack and Gubicza each score a 4, while Candiotti  and Barr each score a 2.

Therefore, I think it is clear that the best losing pitcher of all-time, as far as my research goes, was Bob Friend.  I would rate Jon Matlack as the runner-up, with either Gubicza or Candiotti in third place.

Congratulations to Bob Friend, the Best Losing Pitcher of All-Time.